| 00:00:00 | THE REAL INTELLIGENCE OF THE AMERICAN VOTER IS REALLY UNDERAPPRECIATED. |
| 00:00:05 | IN FACT, I GOT INTO THE BUSINESS OF POOLING PRETTY MUCH AFTER READING A BOOK ONE DAY BY FELLOW, WHICH SAID, THE SIMPLE FACT OF THIS BOOK IS THAT THE VOTERS ARE NOT FOOLS. |
| 00:00:20 | THE VOTERS, IN FACT, HAVE REAL PERSPECTIVES, REAL ISSUES, REAL CHANGES IN THEIR LIFESTYLE. |
| 00:00:28 | AS THIS CLASS STUDIES THE ELECTION OF 2010, MAYBE IT CAN PROVIDE LITTLE INSIGHT INTO WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW AND WHAT HAPPENED IN 2009 AND BEFORE, WHAT ARE THE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN SET UP TO MAKE THIS PERHAPS ONE OF THE MOST HOTLY CONTESTED IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS PROBABLY IN OUR LIFETIME. |
| 00:00:52 | USUALLY THE MIDTERMS DO NOT START UNTIL JUNE. |
| 00:00:54 | I THINK THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY STARTED, THE POLITICAL SEASON IS ON. |
| 00:01:00 | AND THAT'S WHY I THINK BY THE END, BOTH PARTIES ARE BORN TO PULL OUT THE STOPS. |
| 00:01:05 | I PUT UP A LITTLE DATA, BECAUSE IT WOULD NOT BE A PRESENTATION WITHOUT A LITTLE DATA. |
| 00:01:13 | LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT THE COUNTRY WENT THROUGH OVER THE LAST YEAR. |
| 00:01:20 | THE COUNTRY LEFT THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IN A STATE OF EXTREME DESPAIR. |
| 00:01:25 | THERE REALLY FELT THAT PRESIDENT BUSH DID NOT DELIVER ON THE ECONOMIC PROMISES OR THE PROMISES RELATED TO THE WAR IN IRAQ. |
| 00:01:35 | THEY REALLY WANTED A CHANGE. |
| 00:01:36 | IF YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS, 63% -- IF YOU GOING TO JUST THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY, THERE IS A CROSSOVER -- 63% OF AMERICANS THOUGHT THAT THE COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK. |
| 00:01:51 | WELL, TODAY, AND SOME OF THE LATEST POLLS, 65% THINK AMERICA IS ON THE WRONG TRACK. |
| 00:01:59 | IN FACT, DESPITE SOME DOSES OF HOPE, OPTIMISM, AN IMPROVEMENT THAT HAWK -- THAT HAPPENED AROUND MARCH, APRIL, AND MAY, THE GENERAL MOOD OF THE PUBLIC REMAINS EXACTLY THE SAME AS ONE OF THE LOWEST LEVELS THAT WE RECORD IN TERMS OF PEOPLE BELIEVING THAT THINGS ARE ON THE WRONG TRACK. |
| 00:02:23 | WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO THE PRESIDENT'S JOB APPROVAL DURING THAT PERIOD? |
| 00:02:30 | WELL, AS YOU CAN SEE, THE BLUE LINE IS HIS APPROVAL AND IT STARTED AROUND 62%, A GREAT START, AN EXCELLENT APPROVAL RATING. |
| 00:02:41 | HOWEVER THE TREND HAS BEEN STRAIGHT DOWN. |
| 00:02:44 | AS YOU CAN SEE, THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN THAT TREND DURING THE ENTIRE YEAR. |
| 00:02:53 | IF WE WERE IN THE WHITE HOUSE DELIVERING THESE CHARTS, THESE WOULD BE TOUGH CHARGE FOR ANY PRESIDENT AT ANY TIME, AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE DISAPPROVE NUMBERS, DISAPPROVE STARTED AT THE REPUBLICAN BASE OF 34%, AND THEY HAVE MOVED UP. |
| 00:03:13 | IN THIS POLLING, IT WAS AN 51%, AND IN THE NEW YORK TIMES, IT WAS 46-45. |
| 00:03:26 | PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL IS HOVERING BELOW 50%. |
| 00:03:29 | THIS IS WHAT I CALL THE ROLL OF 50%. |
| 00:03:32 | THE MOMENT WE GET THAT 50%, IT IS EVERYONE'S POLITICAL ADVANTAGE TO START KICKING YOU. |
| 00:03:41 | IF YOU ARE ABOVE, PEOPLE SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO HARD BECAUSE THERE MAY BE A BOOMERANG. |
| 00:03:49 | PRESIDENTS FIND THAT WHEN YOU FALL BELOW 50%, IT ENGENDERS A COLLECTIVE KICKING UP, SO THAT THINGS GET EVEN HARDER TO MANAGE DURING THAT PERIOD. |
| 00:04:04 | IT IS CRITICAL FOR PRESIDENT TO KEEP HIS APPROVAL ABOVE 50% FOR THAT VERY REASON, TO PREVENT THAT KIND OF IMPACT FROM SETTLING IN. |
| 00:04:14 | YOU SAW THAT WITH PRESIDENT BUSH. |
| 00:04:17 | ONE DAY HE WAS AT 50%, THE NEXT DAY HE WAS AT 30%. |
| 00:04:21 | I DO NOT THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE THAT WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA, BUT HE HAS TO REVERSE THIS TREND, AND THE STATED THE UNION DID NOT REVERSE THE TREND. |
| 00:04:30 | THE BIGGEST EVENT THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS EVERY YEAR TO GET UP WITH THE STATE OF THE UNION, OUTLINE YOUR AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE OF THE COUNTRY, AND USE THAT AS A SPRINGBOARD FOR RESTORING CONFIDENCE IN THE COUNTRY. |
| 00:04:44 | AND WHAT HAPPENED ON THE STATE OF THE UNION THIS YEAR, WHERE THE PRESIDENT GAVE AN EXCELLENT SPEECH, BUT THE FACTS OF THE PROBLEMS, PARTICULARLY THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF 2% UNEMPLOYMENT, THAT HAS PEOPLE IN A MOOD NOW WHERE THEY HAVE TO SEE SOME RESULTS. |
| 00:05:01 | AND IT IS RESULTS THAT ALL TAMALE CREATES A BOND BETWEEN THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESIDENT. |
| 00:05:08 | -- THAT ULTIMATELY CREATES A BOND BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT AND THE PEOPLE. |
| 00:05:14 | HOW THAT THE SUCCESSFUL POLITICAL CANDIDATE, MAYBE ONE IN THREE ASHLEY BECOME SUCCESSFUL LEADERS OF THE PRESIDENCY. |
| 00:05:21 | IT IS FAR HARDER TO GOVERN THEN TO ASHLEY GET TO THE PRESIDENCY. |
| 00:05:25 | HAVING SAID THAT, LET ME JUST SAY -- AND I CAME ON WHEN PRESIDENT CLINTON WAS NOT AT 47% BUT AT 32%. |
| 00:05:35 | IN FACT, THE ABILITY FOR THE PRESIDENT TO TURN THIS AROUND WAS REALLY QUITE HIGH AND QUITE STRONG. |
| 00:05:44 | NOW BECAUSE IT IS EARLY AND IT WAS -- AND THE PROGRAMS HAVE TIME TO WORK AND WHEN THEY DO WORK, THERE IS TIME TO MAKE THE BOND. |
| 00:05:55 | HOW DID PRESIDENT CLINTON SUCCESSFULLY NAVIGATE THE WATERS OF 1998 AND THE IMPEACHMENT? |
| 00:06:00 | BECAUSE BY THAT TIME IN HIS TERM, HE HAD TOLD PEOPLE HE WOULD IMPROVE THE ECONOMY AND HE HAD IMPROVE THE ECONOMY. |
| 00:06:09 | ITO PEOPLE HE COULD CARRY THE COUNTRY INTO THE 21ST CENTURY, AND PEOPLE FELT THERE. |
| 00:06:13 | THEY HAD AN ESSENTIAL BOND OF TRUST WARMED OVER SIX YEARS THAT PRESIDENT CLINTON WOULD DELIVER FOR THEM. |
| 00:06:19 | THAT BONN WAS FORMED EARLY. |
| 00:06:22 | WHAT HAPPENED WAS PRESIDENT BUSH, PRESIDENT BUSH DID NOT DELIVER, AND THEY SOUNDLY REJECTED HIM AND COULD NOT WAIT FOR THE CHANGE. |
| 00:06:32 | WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA, THIS IS ONLY A YEAR. |
| 00:06:35 | THE CHARTS ARE NOT HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTIONS BUT THE PROBLEMS ARE THERE. |
| 00:06:41 | YOU'VE GOT TO REVERSE THIS BY THE MIDTERM OR THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SNOWBALL. |
| 00:06:46 | IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THIS BY PARTY, IF YOU SEE THAT DEMOCRATS, THE BLUE LINE UP THERE, THEY STARTED PRETTY HAPPY AND THEY ARE STILL PRETTY HAPPY. |
| 00:07:00 | THERE WERE 90% APPROVAL AND THEY ARE A 80% APPROVAL. |
| 00:07:05 | REPUBLICANS WERE AT 42% APPROVAL AND THEY HAVE DROPPED TO 90% APPROVAL. |
| 00:07:12 | SO, MORE THAN HALF. |
| 00:07:16 | AND THAT INDEPENDENT LINE, THAT WAS AT 62% -- AND 62% WAS WHERE THE PRESIDENT STARTED ON AVERAGE THREE THAT HAS DROPPED TO 38%. |
| 00:07:27 | WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE RELUCTANT TO IT PRESIDENT IS, THEY ARE DRAMATICALLY SEPARATED FROM THE OTHERS. |
| 00:07:39 | THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE UNITED DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND ON THE OTHER HAND CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN THE RESULT OF THE ELECTION OF 2010. |
| 00:07:51 | MALIKI TAKE A LOOK AT CONGRESSIONAL IMPROVEMENTS -- NOW IF YOU TAKE A LOOK CONGRESSIONAL IMPROVEMENT, THAT HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED. |
| 00:07:59 | IT USED TO BE 80% DISAPPROVAL, NOW IT IS 71%. |
| 00:08:06 | AND YOU CAN SEE THE SIMILAR PATTERN AT CLOSE TO 80%, 769 DISAPPROVAL IN JANUARY, COMING OFF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION. |
| 00:08:19 | THEN THINGS LOOK PROMISING. |
| 00:08:24 | YOU SEE THE DRAMATIC SWING UP, ALMOST 40% APPROVAL, AND SINCE THEN YOU SEE THE SIMILAR PATTERN, DOWN TO 24% APPROVAL PATTERN, 71% DISAPPROVAL. |
| 00:08:37 | THAT MEANS THAT IF YOU ARE RUNNING AS AN INCUMBENT IN 2010, MOST OF THE VOTERS, CLOSE TO 75% ARE SAYING THAT THEY WANT MORE CHANGE IN CONGRESS. |
| 00:08:50 | THESE ARE TOUGH NUMBERS. |
| 00:08:53 | WHEN YOU SEE SOMEONE LIKE SENATOR EVAN BY SAYING, -- EVAN BAYH SAYING THAT HE IS GOING TO RESIGN BECAUSE OF PARTISANSHIP, HE IS LOOKING AT NUMBERS AS WELL AND SEEMED THAT THE NUMBERS ARE AS BAD FOR PEOPLENi REELECTING -- RUNNING FOR REELECTION AS HE IS SEEN. |
| 00:09:18 | I DON'T THINK IT MUCH WORSE THAN HAVE DISAPPROVAL IN THE NIGHT -- IN THE '70S. |
| 00:09:29 | ' coLOOK AT THE BLUE LINE. |
| 00:09:31 | FOR A WHILE, DEMOCRATS AND THAT APRIL-JUNE PERIOD WERE PRETTY SATISFIED. |
| 00:09:37 | THEY SEARCHED UP TO 62%. |
| 00:09:39 | AND THEN THEY TRENDED DOWN TO 42% APPROVAL. |
| 00:09:43 | IF YOU LOOK TO REPUBLICANS, REPUBLICANS HAVE NOT BEEN HAPPY ABOUT CONGRESS'S THEY DO NOT HAVE EITHER HOUSE AND SO THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BE HAPPY. |
| 00:09:54 | BUT INDEPENDENTS FOLLOW THE LINE WHERE THEY WENT UP TO 34% AND NOW THEY ARE DOWN AT 19%. |
| 00:10:02 | EVEN A MAJORITY OF DEMOCRATS, WHO RIGHT NOW ARE NOT SATISFIED, WHEN YOUR OWN PARTY HAS BOTH HOUSES AND YOU DO NOT HAVE MAJORITY OF THE RAHM PARTY, THAT IS MORE FUEL ON THE ELECTORAL FIRE. |
| 00:10:21 | THEN IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IT SHOWS 44 REPUBLICANS, 35 DEMOCRATIC, A LOT OF DIFFERENT POLLS HAVE CONGRESSIONAL BALLOTS THAT SHOW REPUBLICANS EITHER AT PARITY. |
| 00:10:44 | THEY HAVE TRADITIONALLY RUN SIX OR EIGHT POINTS AHEAD IN THE GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT. |
| 00:10:50 | THIS IS ABOUT AS EXTREME AS I HAVE SEEN THE CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT. |
| 00:10:55 | LET ME GO BACK TO A THEORY I HAVE ABOUT MIDTERM VOTERS. |
| 00:11:01 | ABOUT 66% OF TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS -- OF MIDTERM VOTERS ARE GOING TO VOTE ON THE BASIS OF THE CANDIDATE. |
| 00:11:09 | I THINK THAT IF THIS ISSUE, HE IS CLOSER TO ME, ABOUT 33% WILL VOTE ON THE BASIS OF MOOD. |
| 00:11:19 | SO THE RESULT OF THESE MIDTERMS IS THE COMBINATION OF WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE, COVERING 67% OF THE VOTERS, AND THE MOOD. |
| 00:11:29 | A THIRD COME OUT TO SAY THAT WE HAVE TO KEEP GOING IN THE DIRECTION THAT WE'RE GOING AND, OR WE HAVE TO CHANGE THE DIRECTION -- I AM DISSATISFIED. |
| 00:11:40 | THAT 33% DOES NOT KNOW OR EVEN CARE WHO THE CONGRESSIONAL OR SENATORIAL CANDIDATE IS, BUT THEY CARE THAT THEY ARE EXPRESSING THEMSELVES THROUGH THE VOTE. |
| 00:11:51 | RIGHT NOW, THE THIRD THAT DOES THAT THEN PRODUCES BIGGER SWINGS THAN ONE IMAGINES, WHICH IS WHY THE SWINGS ARE STRONGER AND BIGGER THAN POLLSTERS PREDICT. |
| 00:12:07 | ITS WINGS ON ONE DIRECTION, THEN THAT CAN REALLY PRODUCE A STRONG REVERSAL. |
| 00:12:15 | THE 1994 ELECTIONS GOT ME MY JOB WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON, BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT REALLY CHANGED HIS TEAM, HIS STAFF, THE DIRECTION, AND REALLY MOVE BACK TO THE CENTER IN A VERY SIGNIFICANT WAY. |
| 00:12:33 | BUT THAT ULTIMATELY LED TO HIS REELECTION IN 1996, AND THE KIND OF APPROVAL THAT YOU SAW WHAT THIS PRESIDENT THROUGHOUT. |
| 00:12:46 | -- WITH THIS PRESIDENT THROUGHOUT. |
| 00:12:48 | THERE IS ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT IS WORTH POINTING OUT, THE RISE OF INDEPENDENT VOTERS. |
| 00:12:55 | WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL INDEPENDENT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACIES, IN THE 1980'S JOHN ANDERSON, ROSS PEROT WENT IN AND OUT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, BUT TYPICALLY IF YOU GO BACK -- THIS IS NOT BEEN A COUNTRY WITH A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF INDEPENDENTS HISTORICALLY. |
| 00:13:17 | IF YOU GO BACK TO THE 1940'S IN TERMS OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION, YOU CAN SEE THAT BETWEENB 50% AND 20% IDENTIFIED AS INDEPENDENT. |
| 00:13:30 | I AROUND 40% IDENTIFIED THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS, AND AROUND 35% AS REPUBLICANS. |
| 00:13:40 | YOU CAN SEE BUT A PEAK ARE AROUND THE TIME OF PRESIDENT KENNEDY'S ELECTION IN THE EARLY 1960'S, THE DEMOCRATS WENT UP TO 50% OF THE COUNTRY IDENTIFYING THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS. |
| 00:13:54 | THE REPUBLICANS WENT STRAIGHT DOWN AS YOU CAN SEE, WHAT IT -- WITH THE SURGE BACK COMING BACK AROUND 1980, OR RONALD REAGAN BRINGING BACK THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. |
| 00:14:09 | BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THAT MIDDLE LINE, THAT IS THE INDEPENDENT LINE. |
| 00:14:14 | IT HAS SHOWN A STEADY RISE IN THE COUNTRY SO THAT AT THIS MOMENT, WITH 36% IN THIS POLL, I HAVE SEEN IT AS HIGH AS 40%, THE BIGGEST PARTY IN AMERICA IS THE MIDDLE PARTY. |
| 00:14:30 | AND IF YOU GO BACK, THIS IS THE 70-YEAR HISTORY HERE. |
| 00:14:35 | THIS IS A FIRST IN THE UNITED STATES OF ELECTORAL POLITICS. |
| 00:14:41 | WHEN WE TALK ABOUT INDEPENDENT VOTERS, WE ARE NO LONGER TALKING ABOUT A SMALL SWING GROUP OR MICROTRENDS. |
| 00:14:48 | WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE BIGGEST IMAGINABLE BLOCK OF VOTERS, A NUMBER OF VOTERS THAT CAN SWING BACK AND FORTH GREATER THAN EVER, AND THE NUMBER OF VOTERS SAYING, I HAD FAITH IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BUT THEY LET ME DOWN. |
| 00:15:06 | I HAD FAITH IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BUT THEY LET ME DOWN. |
| 00:15:09 | I AM NOW SITTING BACK HERE WAITING TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT I AM GOING TO GO BACK TO THE DEMOCRATS IF I SEE PROGRESS ON THE ECONOMY, OR MAYBE SWING IN ANOTHER DIRECTION. |
| 00:15:23 | THESE ARE TOUGH POLITICAL CURRENTS BUT SUGGEST THAT -- THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOVEMENT, POSSIBILITY OF GROWTH FOR INDEPENDENTS OUT THERE. |
| 00:15:35 | THIS COULD CHANGE BACK. |
| 00:15:38 | IF YOU GO THROUGH THE HISTORICAL PATTERNS, AND YOU COULD SEE HOW THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS HAVE BOTH HAD TIMES WHEN THEY CAME BACK, BUT TO GET THIS NEW, YOUNGER GROUP OF VOTERS, MORE PLUG THEN, NETWORKS, CONNECTING ON ISSUES, AND IF YOU TAKE THE NO. |
| 00:15:59 | 1 SENTIMENT IN THE COUNTRY OUT THERE, WHICH IS I WANT TO SEE PROGRESS, NOT PARTISANSHIP, BOTH PARTIES ARE FACING A CRISIS IN CONFIDENCE OVER THEMSELVES AND FRANKLY -- I SHOULD SAY THAT A LOT POLLS AND A LOT OF PEOPLE ALWAYS LIKE TO SAY THAT THE CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT AND OUR INSTITUTION, AND I AM THE GUY THAT SAYS, THERE IS NOT REALLY A CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR INSTITUTION. |
| 00:16:31 | PEOPLE ARE VOTING AND LISTENING BEFORE. |
| 00:16:36 | BUT THERE REALLY ARE SAYING IN A VERY CLEAR WAY, ENOUGH PARTISANSHIP. |
| 00:16:42 | I WANT TO RELEASE THE THE COMMON SENSE IDEAS -- I WANT TO RELEASE A COMMON-SENSE IDEAS ADOPTED ACROSS PARTY LINES. |
| 00:16:51 | AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THIS NUMBER, THIS IS TREMENDOUS CHANGE. |
| 00:16:55 | THE MEDIA IS FOCUSED VERY MUCH ON A TEA PARTY REPUBLICANS AND SARAH PALIN. |
| 00:17:01 | WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE START, YOU UNDERSTAND THAT THE ELECTORAL CHANGE, IF THERE IS ELECTORAL CHANGE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, IT IS NOT GOING TO BE DRIVEN BY SARAH PALIN OR THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT. |
| 00:17:13 | IT IS GOING TO BE DRIVEN BY THE VOTERS I TOLD YOU ABOUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TALL, RATIONAL, THINKING, BETTER EDUCATED VOTERS WHO CARE ABOUT THE ISSUES. |
| 00:17:22 | AND THEY ARE SAYING, I WANT A SOLUTION TO THIS FISCAL PROBLEM. |
| 00:17:27 | I WANT A SOLUTION TO THE ECONOMY. |
| 00:17:30 | AND THESE KIND OF VOTERS NOW ARE MORE TUNED IN. |
| 00:17:36 | I THINK THEY ARE FOLLOWING POLITICS AS NEVER BEFORE. |
| 00:17:39 | THEY ARE SAYING, I AM GOING TO PARTICIPATE IN IN ON MY TERMS. |
| 00:17:47 | IT IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE POLITICAL LEADERS TO BE ATTUNED TO THAT. |
| 00:17:52 | AND THE OTHER THING ABOUT THE VOTERS IN THIS GROWING GROUP, IT IS FRUSTRATING FOR THEM TO FIND THE BOYS, PARTICULARLY WHEN THEY FEEL THAT THE MEDIA IS DOMINATED BY THE LEFT OR THE RIGHT, CONTINUALLY PUT THE ATTENTION GIVEN TO SARAH PALIN AND THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT INSTEAD OF HOW THEY REALLY FEEL ABOUT ISSUES LIKE HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION, AND THE ECONOMY. |
| 00:18:21 | SO, YOU KNOW, AT THE END OF THE DAY, WHAT DOES THE PRESIDENT HAVE TO DO ABOUT THIS? |
| 00:18:29 | THE PRESIDENT HAS TO DO A NUMBER OF THINGSnr RIGHT AND HE HAS CLEARLY GOT THE MESSAGE OF MASSACHUSETTS, BUT THE FIRST THING IS THAT IN GOVERNING FROM THE CENTER, THE ACTIONS HAVE TO BE MORE THAN WORDS. |
| 00:18:44 | PEOPLE HAVE TO FEEL THAT THE ADMINISTRATION ITSELF IS GOVERNING SQUARELY IN THE CENTER, LOOKING FOR THE COMMON SENSE SOLUTIONS TO THE BIG PROBLEMS OUT THERE. |
| 00:18:54 | THAT MEANS THAT IF YOU LOOK AT THE CHART, THEY HAVE TO SEE A CHANGE IN DIRECTION FROM THE WHITE HOUSE. |
| 00:19:02 | EXPLICIT, CLEAR, CHANGE IN DIRECTION. |
| 00:19:04 | OR THEY HAVE TO SEE SOME RESULTS. |
| 00:19:07 | THEIR PATIENCE FOR RESULTS IS WEARING THIN. |
| 00:19:11 | IF YOU RECALL PRESIDENT CLINTON, HE HAD A CLEAR ECONOMIC STRATEGY, AND ELEMENTS WERE POPULAR AND SOME ARE NOT. |
| 00:19:19 | HE BELIEVED IN EXPANDING TRADE AND EXPANDED INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE AND EDUCATION, MATH, SCIENCE -- HE BELIEVED IN CLOSING THE FEDERAL DEFICIT. |
| 00:19:34 | THOSE THREE ELEMENTS WAS THE STRATEGY THAT EVERYONE UNDERSTOOD, WHETHER PEOPLE WERE FOR OR AGAINST TRADE, WHERE THEY LIKE -- WHETHER THEY LIKE HIGHER TAXES TO CLOSE THE DEFICIT, WHETHER THEY AGREE OR NOT WITH THE ADDITIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE EXPENDITURES, AND THOSE ON EDUCATION -- THEY COME TOGETHER AS A CLEAR STRATEGY. |
| 00:19:59 | YEARS LATER, IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SUCCESS. |
| 00:20:02 | AND I THINK PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS TO OUTLINE A CLEAR STRATEGY. |
| 00:20:06 | WHAT ARE THE ELEMENTS BEYOND STIMULUS AS A STRATEGY FOR THE LONG-TERM SUCCESS OF THIS COUNTRY IN A COMPETITIVE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT? |
| 00:20:18 | THE PRESIDENT IS GOING TO NEED A DEFICIT STRATEGY. |
| 00:20:21 | WITHOUT A CLEAR DEFICIT STRATEGY, PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SAY THAT IT IS OUT OF CONTROL. |
| 00:20:26 | THE COMMISSION IS A FOR STEP TOWARD THAT STRATEGY, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, IT IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR THAT STRATEGY. |
| 00:20:35 | AND THEN WORKING ON THE EVERYDAY PROBLEMS. |
| 00:20:39 | SOMETIMES IT IS POPULAR TO RIDICULE A LOT OF THINGS THAT PRESIDENT CLINTON DID IN 1996. |
| 00:20:45 | HE DID SOME SMALL THINGS LIKE BALANCING THE BUDGET, REFORMING WELFARE, CREATING 24 MILLION JOBS. |
| 00:20:53 | TAKE A LOOK AT THE THINGS THAT WERE DONE AND THE 1996-2000 PERIOD, WHICH WERE IN MANY SENSES THAT KIND OF IN POWERING ACHIEVEMENTS THAT STARTED WITH THESE INDIVIDUAL STRATEGIES BUT LATER UP, NOT JUST THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF WELFARE REFORM OR THE BALANCE BUDGETS, AND PUTTING 24 MILLION PEOPLE TO WORK, BUT ALSO MAKING PEOPLE FEELING GOOD ABOUT THE ROLE THE GOVERNMENT PLAYED IN PEOPLE'S LIVES. |
| 00:21:24 | THE YEAR OF BIG GOVERNMENT WAS OVER BUT THAT DID NOT MEAN THAT THE GOVERNMENT DID NOT HELP ELIMINATE SOME OF THE PROBLEMS OF SMOKING, HELP PROTECT THE KIDS ON SCHOOL PLAYGROUNDS, IT HELP PROTECT WOMEN FROM ABUSE, AND IT TOOK ON DAY AFTER DAY A SERIES OF GROWING MODERN PROBLEMS, WITH A SOCCER MOMS WHO HELP THEM OR WHETHER OR NOT IT WAS THE AGING WORK FORCE -- RELENTLESSLY TAKING ON THOSE PROBLEMS TO SHOW THAT THE PRESIDENCY WAS ABOUT BOTH BIG THINGS AND REALLY CONNECTED WITH PEOPLE'S EVERYDAY LIVES. |
| 00:22:02 | IF I WERE GOING TO SAY THAT WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED TO TURN THINGS AROUND, IT IS VERY MUCH A DOSE OF THE CLINTONISM THAT WE SAW IN THE YEARS FOLLOWING 1996. |
| 00:22:18 | THAT CLINTONISM, I THINK, IN MANY WAYS CAN BE EASILY UNDERRATED. |
| 00:22:22 | IT WAS NOT FLASHY BUT IT SURE WAS PRODUCTIVE. |
| 00:22:26 | HAVING A CLEAR ECONOMIC STRATEGY, WITH ITS THREE LEGS, REALLY GOING FOR THE BALANCED BUDGET, DEFICIT REDUCTION, WILL LEAD IN CREATING WELFARE REFORM THE MOVING THE COUNTRY TO THE CENTER AND A WAY THAT THE PEOPLE IN THE CENTER FELT LIKE THE PRESIDENT WAS LISTENING TO THEM. |
| 00:22:46 | THAT WAS SO CRITICAL FOR PRESIDENT CLINTON. |
| 00:22:49 | ALL OF THESE ELEMENTS ARE VERY SIMILAR FOR WHAT PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS TO DO IN ORDER TO BOTH REVERSED A KIND OF NUMBERS THAT YOU SEE HERE AND TO BE AN INCREDIBLY SUCCESSFUL PRESIDENT. |
| 00:23:01 | WE ALL HOPE THAT HE IS GOING TO DO THAT. |
| 00:23:05 | WE'RE OPENING A GOOD DOSE OF CLINTONISM WILL IN FACT REALLY HELP WITH THIS COUNTRY IN THE DIRECTION THAT I THINK THE COUNTRY IS CLEARLY LOOKING FOR, AND WILL AGAIN BE SUCCESSFULLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER TWO-TERM DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT. |
| 00:23:31 | THANK YOU. [APPLAUSE] >> THANKS, MARK. |
| 00:23:33 | ALL RIGHT, YOUR TURN. |
| 00:23:37 | ALL THOSE WHO WANT ASK QUESTIONS, RAISE YOUR HANDS AND WAIT FOR THE MICROPHONE TO GET TO YOU. |
| 00:23:42 | LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE 2010 ELECTIONS, I AM SURE. |
| 00:23:47 | >> THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. |
| 00:23:49 | MY NAME IS EMILY FISHER AND I AM A STUDENT HERE AT THE CLINTON SCHOOL. |
| 00:23:54 | WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT OUR PREDICTIONS FOR THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE IN THE MIDTERM. |
| 00:24:00 | IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE YEAR, BUT DO YOU THINK THE PRESIDENT WILL TAKE BACK OVER THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE? |
| 00:24:12 | >> IN FAIRNESS TO YOU AND THE CLASS, I WOULD SAY THAT IT IS EARLY TO MAKE THOSE PREDICTIONS. |
| 00:24:20 | I THINK THE POINT OF THIS TALK WAS, YES, IF THESE NUMBERS CONTINUE AS THEY ARE, IF YOU CAN SEE THE KIND OF SWING WITH A HOUSE WOULD SHIFT AND THE SENATE WOULD BECOME CONSIDERABLY CLOSER. |
| 00:24:35 | THESE ARE PRETTY FRIGHTENING TRAMS FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE. |
| 00:24:40 | BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THIS TALK IS THAT THESE TRENDS ARE NOT SET IN STONE. |
| 00:24:45 | WHAT HAPPENS WITH UNEMPLOYMENT, WHAT THE PRESIDENT DOES, WHEN IT SHIFTS DIRECTION -- THERE IS A LOT OF TIME HERE. |
| 00:24:55 | PEOPLE SAY THAT POLLS ARE A SNAPSHOT IN TIME. |
| 00:24:58 | YOUR PREDICTIONS ARE ACTUALLY A SNAPSHOT IN TIME, BASED ON WHAT CONDITIONS ARE TODAY. |
| 00:25:05 | CONDITIONS ARE TODAY NOT GOOD FOR THE 2010 ELECTION AND COULD VERY WELL PRODUCE THE KIND OF SWING THAT WOULD MOVE THE HOUSE. |
| 00:25:16 | I THINK IT IS HARDER -- IN 1994, THERE WERE ASHLEY 22 RESIGNATIONS. |
| 00:25:23 | HERE THERE ARE ONLY FOUR OPEN SEATS. |
| 00:25:26 | STRUCTURALLY IT IS PROBABLY A LOT HARDER FOR THE CONDITIONS THAT HAPPENED IN 1994 TO RELATE REOCCUR. |
| 00:25:33 | THE REPUBLICANS DON'T SEEM TO HAVE THEIR ACT TOGETHER, EITHER. |
| 00:25:37 | THEY DON'T HAVE THAT TYPE OF LEADERSHIP THAT HAS A COHERENT ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY. |
| 00:25:43 | WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED IN 1994. |
| 00:25:44 | WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF THAT HAPPENING AGAIN? |
| 00:25:48 | THERE'S CERTAINLY A PROBABILITY. |
| 00:25:50 | BUT STRUCTURALLY IT IS LESS LIKELY. |
| 00:25:54 | NUMBERS-WISE, IT EVEN SET OUT AS THE DISCONTENT COULD BE SO HIGH. |
| 00:25:59 | IF UNEMPLOYMENT GOT DOWN TO 8% AND PEOPLE SAW A NEW DIRECTION, I THINK YOU COULD SAW -- SEE A LOT OF PRODUCTION OF THE PRESSURE. |
| 00:27:07 | QUESTION. . SINCE 1992, PEOPLE SAW CLINTON AS BEING MORE IN THE CENTER IN 1992. |
| 00:27:15 | IN 1996, IT WAS VERY MUCH THE SAME THING, WHERE HE HELD THE CENTER AGAINST BOB DOLE, WHO WAS SEEN AS MORE CONSERVATIVE. |
| 00:27:25 | IN 2000, BUSH MANAGED TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY THROUGH CONSERVATISM. |
| 00:27:31 | HIS MOVE TO THE CENTER -- HE POINTED OUT COURT AS A BIG- GOVERNMENT LIBERAL. |
| 00:27:37 | HE PUSHED AL GORE TO THE LEFT. |
| 00:27:43 | THE ELECTION CAME DOWN TO THE WIRE. |
| 00:27:46 | BUSH REHELD THAT IN 2004 AGAINST JOHN KERRY. |
| 00:27:53 | HE LOST IN 2006 -- AFTER THE 2004 ELECTION, HE WAS DOMINATED COMPLETELY BY CHENEY AND THE RIGHT WING AND THE CENTER SAID, THIS IS NOT WHAT WE BARGAINED FOR AT ALL AND THEY DRAMATICALLY SHIFTED. |
| 00:28:09 | I THINK OBAMA HELD THE CENTER GOING INTO THE ELECTION. |
| 00:28:14 | WITH THE GROWTH OF INDEPENDENCE, IT IS THE CENTER THAT IS AT STAKE. |
| 00:28:19 | THE MEDIA CONTINUES TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE IT IS THE EXTREMES OR -- THE OTHER THING I NOTICED IS THAT THEY TRIED TO DEPICT ALL VOTERS AS ANGRY. |
| 00:28:30 | IT IS ALL ABOUT WHO CAN TAP INTO THE INNER BETTER. |
| 00:28:34 | A LOT OF VOTERS ARE DISTRESSED. |
| 00:28:39 | THEY MAY HAVE ANGER, BUT THEIR ACTIONS ARE RATIONAL. |
| 00:28:44 | THEY ARE UPSET WITH THE CONDITIONS OF THE COUNTRY -- THE DEFICIT, UNEMPLOYMENT. |
| 00:28:50 | THEY WILL VOTE ON THE BASIS OF THAT. |
| 00:28:54 | THEY WILL VOTE FOR WHO THEY THINK OFFERS THEM NOT A MORE EXTREME PICTURE, BUT WHO OFFERS THEM A MORE RATIONAL WAY OUT. |
| 00:29:02 | I THINK THAT IS HOW PRESIDENT OBAMA GOT ELECTED BECAUSE HE APPEARED TO HAVE A RATIONAL THOUGHT ALL WAY OUT OF THE ECONOMIC PRICES AND JOHN MCCAIN DID NOT SEEM TO HAVE A PLAN. |
| 00:29:12 | THAT WAS NOT ABOUT ANGER. |
| 00:29:15 | IT WAS REALLY QUITE THOUGHTFUL. |
| 00:29:20 | >> IN LOOKING AT THE INDEPENDENT NUMBERS, IT MAY BE TEMPTING TO THINK THAT THE TEA PARTY MEMBERS -- COULD YOU GIVE US BACKGROUND ON WHAT IS INSIDE THAT INDEPENDENT CONSTITUENCY? |
| 00:29:35 | >> THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION. |
| 00:29:38 | THE INDEPENDENTS ARE REALLY NOT MONOLITHIC. |
| 00:29:43 | IT IS MOSTLY FORMER DEMOCRAT AND FORMER REPUBLICANS. |
| 00:29:51 | I HAVE ANALYZED THEM -- THEY ARE ROSS PEROT INDEPENDENCE, MORE ANTI-GOVERNMENT, MORE ALIENATED FROM THE POLITICAL SYSTEM. |
| 00:30:03 | IT IS AN OLD ANALOGY, BUT THERE ARE MORE OF THE JOHN ANDERSON INDEPENDENTS WHO ARE WELL- EDUCATED AND THOUGHTFUL. |
| 00:30:13 | THEIR BOAT IS ABOUT WHAT THEY THINK IS RIGHT -- THEIR VOTE IS ABOUT WHAT THEY THINK IS RIGHT. |
| 00:30:22 | THEY ARE SOCIALLY MORE TOLERANT, BUT ECONOMICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE. |
| 00:30:27 | THE SYSTEM HAS A STRUCTURAL ISSUE -- IF YOU ARE SOCIALLY MORE TOLERANT AND MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE DEMOCRATS, BUT YOU BELIEVE IN SMALLER GOVERNMENT AND SOME OF THE REPUBLICAN -- BUT YOU DO NOT WANT TO PUT YOUR LOT IN WITH THE SARAH PALIN AND THE EXTREME RIGHT, YOU CONTINUALLY ARE CONFUSED ABOUT WHERE TO GO. |
| 00:30:48 | I THINK THAT IS A VERY BIG PART OF THE GROWING INDEPENDENT GROUP"4. |
| 00:30:58 | >> A QUESTION HERE IN THE BACK. |
| 00:31:02 | >> HELLO. |
| 00:31:03 | YOU HAVE NOT MENTIONED HEALTH CARE. |
| 00:31:05 | HOW BIG A ROLE DO YOU THINK THAT WILL HAVE IN THE 2010 ELECTIONS? |
| 00:31:11 | IS THERE ANYTHING THAT OBAMA IN CONGRESS COULD DO TO REALLY MOVE THAT ALONG BETWEEN NOW AND THEN? |
| 00:31:19 | >> THE ISSUE ABOUT HEALTH CARE IS -- IF YOU GO BACK, AFTER HILLARY'S ORIGINAL ATTEMPT AT HEALTH CARE, THE ADMINISTRATION SAID, WE ARE GOING TO MOVE A STEP-BY-STEP ON HEALTH CARE, BECAUSE WE KNOW EVERYBODY AGREES WITH THE GOAL OF HAVING BETTER HEALTH CARE WITH WIDER COVERAGE AND LOWER COST. |
| 00:31:42 | THE ISSUE IS HOW DO YOU GET THERE AND HOW DO YOU PAY FOR IT. |
| 00:31:47 | THAT OPENS UP A PANDORA'S BOX OF VERY DIFFICULT ISSUES THAT 85 PERCENT OF THE VOTERS HAVE COVERAGE AND THEY DID NOT WANT TO SEE CHANGES THAT MIGHT IMPINGE ON THEIR ABILITY TO GET THE HEALTH CARE THEY WANT AT ANY TIME. |
| 00:32:06 | I THINK THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION'S LOOK AT SOME OF THE SAME THINGS THAT HILLARY DID AND SAID THAT SHE WAITED LATER TO DO HEALTH CARE SO SOME OF THE ISSUES GOT AWAY. |
| 00:32:15 | SHE DID THE PLAN AND GAVE IT TO CONGRESS. |
| 00:32:18 | THEY TOOK AN OPPOSITE APPROACH SAYING, WELL, MAYBE THIS WILL BE MORE SUCCESSFUL. |
| 00:32:24 | WE WILL DO IT EARLIER AND WE WILL NOT WRITE THE PLAN HERE AT THE WHITE HOUSE. |
| 00:32:29 | WE WILL LET IT BUBBLE UP FROM CONGRESS. |
| 00:32:32 | WHAT THEY LEARNED WAS THAT IT DID NOT MATTER HOW YOU APPROACHED THE PROBLEM. |
| 00:32:37 | EVEN IF YOU DID WHAT PREVIOUS PEOPLE DID NOT DO, IT'S STILL GOT TO THE VERY SAME PLACE -- PEOPLE ARE RELUCTANT TO SEE BIG CHANGES TO THEIR HEALTH CARE SYSTEM OCCURRING AT ALL AT ONCE. |
| 00:32:52 | THEY CONTINUALLY PREFER -- LET'S DO ELECTRONIC MEDICAL RECORDS. |
| 00:32:59 | LET'S GET RID OF DISCRIMINATION. |
| 00:33:00 | LET'S GET RID OF HEALTH CARE DISCRIMINATION. |
| 00:33:03 | LET'S NOT JUST AT ALL CHILDREN, BUT LET'S MOVE THAT THE NEXT SET UP. |
| 00:33:08 | I THINK YOU SEE VOTERS SAYING -- THEY ARE VERY WARY OF ENORMOUS PLANTS. |
| 00:33:15 | THEY DID NOT UNDERSTAND. |
| 00:33:19 | -- WEARY OF ENORMOUS PLANS. |
| 00:33:24 | THEY DO NOT UNDERSTAND. |
| 00:33:27 | I DO NOT THINK HEALTH CARE, IF IT IS WHERE IT IS NOW OR THE PRESIDENT COMES BACK WITH SOME LIMITED PIECES, I THINK THE PRESIDENT WILL SUCCESSFULLY WALK IS BACK FROM BECOMING A BIG ISSUE IN THE ELECTION. |
| 00:33:43 | CLEARLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS ON HEALTH CARE, IT WOULD HAVE SHOWN A SIMILAR PATTERN WERE PEOPLE STARTED OUT POSITIVE AND THEN THE MORE THEY HEARD, THE MORE NEGATIVE THEY BECAME. |
| 00:33:54 | I WOULD LOOK FOR THE PRESIDENT IS SICK, WE COULD NOT AGREE ON THE OVERALL PLAN, LET'S PICK SOMETHINGS -- I WOULD LOOK FOR THE PRESIDENT TO SAY, WE COULD NOT AGREE ON THE OVERALL PLAN, LET'S PICK SOME THINGS WE CAN AGREE ON AND KEEP THE PROCESS MOVING. |
| 00:34:10 | HE WILL COME BACK, EITHER AFTER THE MIDTERMS OR AFTER THE SECOND COLLECTION, AND KEEP MOVING THE PROCESS FORWARD. |
| 00:34:18 | TO HAVE THE GOAL -- AFTER THE SECOND ELECTION, AND KEEP MOVING THE PROCESS FORWARD. |
| 00:34:27 | THAT IS THE MESSAGE THE VOTERS HAVE SENT. |
| 00:34:32 | >> THIS WOMAN HAS A QUESTION. |
| 00:34:35 | . >> BACK TO THE INDEPENDENTS AND HOW THEY MAKE UP THEIR MIND AND WHEN THEY MAKE UP THEIR MIND -- HOW MUCH DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHETHER THEY MATCH UP WITH THE CANDIDATE -- DO THEY FLOW FROM CANDIDATE TO CANDIDATE? |
| 00:34:53 | OR ARE THEY MORE LIKELY TO STICK? |
| 00:34:56 | WHEN DO THEY STICK WITH THAT DECISION? |
| 00:35:00 | >> THERE IS NO REAL A SINGLE MODEL ABOUT WHEN THAT INDEPENDENT WILL MAKE THEIR VOTE. |
| 00:35:07 | BY DEFINITION, THEY ARE MORE OF A FLOATING BOVOTE. |
| 00:35:13 | THERE IS UP PROBABILITY THAT THEY WILL VOTE FOR THEIR PARTY CHOICE. |
| 00:35:19 | IT IS NOT STRAIGHT DOWN THE LINE IN 80% OF THE ELECTIONS. |
| 00:35:29 | IF THE BIGGER GROUP OF INDEPENDENTS, THE GREATER THE PROBABILITY OF VOLATILITY IN THE ELECTIONS. |
| 00:35:37 | THOSE VOTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DECIDE LATER AND MORE LIKELY TO CHANGE THEIR MIND ONCE OR TWICE AND MORE LIKELY TO SWING. |
| 00:35:47 | THERE ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE ON HOW THEY THINK CONDITIONS ARE IN THE COUNTRY AT THE TIME THAT A BOAT. |
| 00:35:56 | -- AT THE TIME THAT THEY VOTE. |
| 00:36:01 | IF YOU HAVE AN ELECTORATE THAT IS DOMINATED BY INDEPENDENTS, BY DEFINITION, THEY ARE GOING TO SWING MUCH MORE. |
| 00:36:10 | WE THINK OF THE SWING VOTERS AS A SMALL GROUP. |
| 00:36:17 | I THINK PHILOSOPHICALLY, A LOT OF PEOPLE PUSH THIS NOTION THAT IT WAS A SMALL AND TELESCOPING GROUP IN A COUNTRY THAT ASAS ESSENTIALLY CHOSEN SIDES. |
| 00:36:31 | THE NUMBERS SHOW THE EXACT OPPOSITE HAS HAPPENED. |
| 00:36:34 | THAT IS NOT WHAT THE COUNTRY IS LIKE. |
| 00:36:37 | IN FACT, THERE ARE THREE VERY DISTINCT GROUPS. |
| 00:36:40 | IF YOU ARE DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN -- YOU ARE ONLY GOING TO WIN ALMOST ANY COLLECTION ALMOST ANYWHERE, ONLY IF YOU HAVE A MAJORITY OF THE INDEPENDENT SUPPORT. |
| 00:36:54 | >> ANOTHER QUESTION. |
| 00:36:57 | >> I HEAR YOU SAYING THAT FOLKS OUT THERE WANT TO MOVE THE PROCESS FORWARD AND SEE PROGRESS. |
| 00:37:03 | WITH THE REPUBLICAN MINORITY, THERE IS GRIDLOCK IN THE SENATE. |
| 00:37:09 | THE UC ANY POLITICAL ADVANTAGE -- DO YOU SEE ANY POLITICAL ADVANTAGE FOR THEM TO TAKE A HARDER LINE ENFORCE THE REPUBLICAN HAD HAND? |
| 00:37:23 | -- AND FORCE THE REPUBLICAN HAND? |
| 00:37:30 | COULD THAT HELP THE DEMOCRATS? |
| 00:37:32 | >> IF THERE IS ONE THING THAT YOU DO SEE IN THE POLLS, IT IS THAT THE PRESIDENT IS SEEN AS THE ONE REACHING OUT NOW TO BOTH PARTIES. |
| 00:37:43 | FOR AWHILE, HE WAS SEEN AS JUST PLAYING WITH THE DEMOCRATS, BUT RIGHT NOW, SINCE THE STATE OF THE UNION AND THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, PUSHING FOR THE COMMISSION -- I THINK ABOUT 2- TO-1 -- THEY SAID THAT THE PRESIDENT IS REACHING OUT TO TRY TO FIND MORE BIPARTISAN SOLUTIONS. |
| 00:38:09 | THAT IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST MOVEMENT THAT I SAW IN THE LATEST POLLS IN FAVOR OF THE PRESIDENT. |
| 00:38:16 | IT IS NOT REALLY SEEN BY THE DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS. |
| 00:38:20 | THEY CAN ADOPT ONE OR TWO STRATEGIES. |
| 00:38:26 | THEY CAN JOIN THE BIPARTISAN NOTION ALONG WITH THE PRESIDENT -- THEY CAN SEEM TO BE REACHING OUT TO TRY TO MAKE COMPROMISES TO END THE LOGJAM. |
| 00:38:39 | ALTERNATIVELY, THEY CAN PUT THROUGH A NUMBER OF VOTES THAT ARE REALLY UNPLEASANT FOR REPUBLICANS LEADING UP TO CONGRATULATE -- CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS. |
| 00:38:52 | THAT IS SOMETHING THE REPUBLICANS ALWAYS TRIED TO DO. |
| 00:38:57 | THE DEMOCRATS ARE -- PROBABLY, THE DEMOCRATS NEED TO DO A LITTLE OF EACH. |
| 00:39:03 | YOU NEED TO SHOW THAT YOU ARE FOR PROGRESS AND THAT YOU -- AND THAT THE REPUBLICANS DO NOT HAVE ANY IDEAS OR ARE CLEAN TO OLD IDEAS AND ARE WITHOUT A LEADER AND ARE NOT VOTING FOR SOLUTIONS. |
| 00:39:21 | I THINK THEY NEED TO DEPLOY BOTH OF THOSE STRATEGIES. |
| 00:39:28 | >> PATTERN? |
| 00:39:29 | ON THIS SIDE. |
| 00:39:33 | -- PATRICK. |
| 00:39:37 | >> I REALLY LIKE YOUR COMMENT ABOUT HAVING A PRESIDENT THAT IS TRANSPARENT AND LAYS OUT A SIMPLE, FEASIBLE PLAN THAT WE CAN IDENTIFY WITH. |
| 00:39:47 | LATELY, I HAVE BEEN FRUSTRATED WITH WATCHING THE EVENTS HAPPENING IN CONGRESS. |
| 00:39:53 | THERE SEEMS TO BE SO MUCH BICKERING. |
| 00:39:57 | I SAW A VIDEO ON YOUTUBE OF PRESIDENT OBAMA ADDRESSING THE GOP -- HE WAS STANDING IN FRONT OF THE REPUBLICANS SAYING, WHAT DO YOU WANT TO KNOW? |
| 00:40:07 | JUST TALK TO ME. |
| 00:40:09 | I WAS WONDERING, WHAT IS YOUR OPINION ABOUT HIS NEW INITIATIVE TO TRY TO TELEVISE OR AT LEAST MAKE FOOTAGE AVAILABLE OF THE EVENTS LIKE THAT GOING ON IN CONGRESS? |
| 00:40:20 | >> I THOUGHT THAT WAS AN EXCELLENT -- THERE WAS AN EXCELLENT EVENT THAT THE PRESIDENT OBAMA DID. |
| 00:40:27 | IT WAS GENUINE AND REAL. |
| 00:40:32 | THERE WAS OF A WIDESPREAD SENSE THAT WE DO NOT GET TO SEE REAL DISCUSSIONS OF POLITICAL FIGURES ON ISSUES. |
| 00:40:40 | IN BRITAIN, QUESTION TIME REALLY PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO QUESTION EVERYBODY. |
| 00:40:47 | THEY ARE USED TO THE OPEN, TELEVISED, ROUGH AND TUMBLE BETWEEN POLITICAL FIGURES. |
| 00:40:56 | IN MANY WAYS, WE RUN A CULTURE OF PRESS CONFERENCES, STAGED EVENTS, ISOLATED MESSAGES, AND NOT SO MUCH THAT INTERACTION. |
| 00:41:04 | THE ONLY INTERACTIVE EVEN AS WE TYPICALLY HAVE ARE THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES. |
| 00:41:11 | I THINK IT IS NOT JUST A QUESTION OF TRANSPARENCY, BUT I DO THINK THAT -- THE DOWNSIDE WOULD BE THAT ALTHOUGH PEOPLE WOULD SEE BICKERING, PEOPLE WOULD SEE WORKING ACROSS THE AISLE AND THAT IT IS NOT STAGED. |
| 00:41:26 | IT IS PART OF A GENUINE, ONGOING INTERCHANGED. |
| 00:41:31 | ONE THING THAT PRESIDENT OBAMA RAN AND WON ON WAS THE IDEA OF BEING THE MOST TRANSPARENT PRESIDENT. |
| 00:41:39 | THAT IS IN THE MODERN WORLD WHERE EVERYTHING IS ONLINE INSTANTLY, DELIVERING ON THAT PROMISE IS PART OFNi WHAT HE NEEDS TO DO. |
| 00:41:47 | EVERY PRESIDENT, IN ORDER TO BE MAXIMUMALLY SUCCESSFUL, HAS TO BE THE PERSON THAT WAS ELECTED. |
| 00:41:57 | ONE REASON THEY VOTED FOR HIM WAS BECAUSE THEY SAID HE WOULD BRING A MODERN SENSE OF TRANSPARENCY -- OF NOT LISTENING TO SPECIAL INTERESTS -- INTO THE PRESIDENCY. |
| 00:42:09 | HE CANNOT DO ENOUGH OF SUCH EVENTS. |
| 00:42:13 | >> A QUESTION RIGHT HERE. |
| 00:42:19 | >> I AM FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. |
| 00:42:22 | HOW IMPORTANT, IN REALITY, IS A TURNAROUND OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS TO WHERE THE MIDDLE CLASS FEELS LIKE THEY ARE SEEING A TURNAROUND? |
| 00:42:35 | >> WELL, I THINK THAT THERE IS A VERY, VERY STRONG CONNECTION BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS AND THE NUMBERS YOU SEE POLITICALLY. |
| 00:42:49 | IT IS VERY HARD FOR YOU TO SEE -- TO GET WIDESPREAD APPROVAL WITH 10% UNEMPLOYMENT. |
| 00:42:58 | AS I HAVE SAID THROUGHOUT THIS TALK, THEY ARE DOING A LOT OF THE RIGHT THINGS -- THEY ARE BEING MORE TRANSPARENT AND CREATING A SENSE THAT YOU ARE BRINGING IN BOTH PARTIES AND MOVING FORWARD AND HAVING PROGRESS -- BUT THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR RESULTS. |
| 00:43:15 | WHEN PEOPLE SEEN!o THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER RELIABLY DOWN, EVERYONE CAN -- EVERYONE CAN SAY, THE PROGRAM IS NOT WORKING. |
| 00:43:24 | OR THEY CAN SAY, THIS PROGRAM IS WORKING. |
| 00:43:28 | THAT IS WHY WE HAVE FOUR-YEAR TERMS, PRECISELY BECAUSE OF THE PROBLEMS THAT IF PEOPLE JUDGED EVERYTHING ON WHAT HAPPENS EVERY DAY. |
| 00:43:38 | I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THAT UNEMPLOYMENT AT 10% WAS LIKE A TRIP WIRE. |
| 00:43:44 | ONCE IT GOT TO 10%, THAT KIND OF NUMBER WOULD JUST BECOME EMBLAZONED IN PEOPLE'S MINDS. |
| 00:43:52 | I THINK IT HAS. |
| 00:43:53 | IT WAS UNFORTUNATE THAT IT COULD NOT BE AVOIDED. |
| 00:43:57 | GETTING IT BACK DOWN TO 8% OR BELOW WILL BE A SIMILAR OR FIRST TRIPWIRE THAT WILL SHOW THE PROGRESS IS HAPPENING. |
| 00:44:06 | WE HEAR VARIOUS PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN. |
| 00:44:10 | I THINK THE REALITY OF THAT AGAIN CHANGED A LOT OF THE POLITICAL NUMBERS WE SEE. |
| 00:44:18 | >> YOU SAID A FEW MINUTES AGO ABOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL -- 24/71 -- LEVELS THAT ARE VERY HIGH. |
| 00:44:28 | DECIDED THAT PERHAPS -- YOU CITED THAT THIS MAY HAVE AFFECTED SENATOR BAYH'S DECISION TO NOT RUN. |
| 00:44:41 | WHAT ABOUT AN INCUMBENT? |
| 00:44:49 | WHAT WOULD YOU SAY -- WHAT WOULD YOU DO? |
| 00:44:55 | >> I THINK IT IS A TOUGH SITUATION. |
| 00:45:00 | I THINK THAT THE GENERAL SENSE FOR MOST PEOPLE IS TO REALLY COME OUT AND PICK SOME ISSUES -- SOME STRONG ISSUES THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT TO PEOPLE, RUN A PUBLIC CAMPAIGN ON THEM, TRIED TO SAY, LET'S NOT GET CAUGHT UP ON THE POLITICS OF PARTISANSHIP. |
| 00:45:20 | SENATOR BY STRUCK A CHORD IN A LOT OF PEOPLE -- SENATOR BAYH STRUCK A CHORD IN A LOT OF PEOPLE. |
| 00:45:31 | THE PEOPLE WHO WANT TO STAY IN THE SENATE -- THEY HAVE TO ECHO THAT THAT IS WHERE THEY PERSONALLY ARE. |
| 00:45:40 | THEY HAVE TO PICK A COUPLE OF BIG COMMON-SENSE ISSUES AND REALLY DRIVE THOSE HOME. |
| 00:45:46 | THIRD, I THINK THEY HAVE TO SAY THE REPUBLICANS DO NOT HAVE ANY ANSWERS OTHER THAN NO. |
| 00:45:54 | THE PUBLIC IS SAYING, DO NOT TAKE AT TERM -- WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CONGRESSIONAL NUMBERS, UNDER THE REPUBLICANS, THEY WERE ACTUALLY A FEW POINTS WORSE. |
| 00:46:06 | WHY TURN TO SOMETHING YOU KNOW DOES NOT WORK WHEN YOU HAVE NOT GIVEN THE DEMOCRATS AT THEIR CHANCE AT TURNING THE COUNTRY AROUND? |
| 00:46:15 | -- OF THEIR -- A FAIR CHANCE OF TURNING THE COUNTRY AROUND? |
| 00:46:21 | I THINK THOSE HAVE TO BE ELEMENTS OF A STRATEGY. |
| 00:46:24 | IT IS A DIFFICULT ELECTION. |
| 00:46:26 | >> ONE MORE QUESTION. |
| 00:46:30 | RIGHT HERE. >> HOW MUCH OF A QUANDARY ARE PEOPLE GOING TO BE IN WHEN THE CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTION LIMITS HAVE BEEN THROWN OUT THE WINDOW? |
| 00:46:39 | DO YOU THINK THAT, ON A DAILY BASIS, PUBLIC OPINION WILL BE SWAYED BY WHO HAS THE BEST COMMERCIAL? |
| 00:46:51 | >> I USED TO JOKE THAT WE SPEND A LOT MORE ON ADVERTISING A HAMBURGER IN AMERICA THAN WE DID ON OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM -- THAT HAS CHANGED. |
| 00:47:02 | [LAUGHTER] THERE IS A LOT MORE SPENT IN POLITICS TODAY. |
| 00:47:06 | THE EFFORT TO RESTRICT MONEY IN POLITICS HAS BACKFIRED. |
| 00:47:10 | SO FAR, I DO NOT THINK THE SUPREME COURT RULING WILL ACTUALLY MAKE A LOT OF DIFFERENCE BECAUSE, ALREADY, INTEREST GROUPS ADD SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF ADVERTISEMENTS ON THE AIR -- HAD SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF ADVERTISEMENTS ON THE AIR. |
| 00:47:30 | ALREADY, WE HAVE SEEN A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MONEY FROM ALL SIDES. |
| 00:47:37 | WHEN I STARTED THIS, I THINK WE HAVE PROBABLY NOT SEEN A MIDTERM ELECTION THE WAY THIS COULD SHAPE UP. |
| 00:47:46 | THE AMERICAN PUBLIC -- AND THEY GOT INVOLVED IN THE 2008 ELECTIONS, LIKE NEVER BEFORE. |
| 00:47:55 | A LOT OF PEOPLE PUT AWAY POLITICS FOR A WHILE. |
| 00:47:58 | NOW, I THINK IT IS COMING BACK. |
| 00:48:11 | I THINK YOU'LL SEE THAT HOTLY CONTESTED. |
| 00:48:16 | I USED TO DO POLLS A POLITICAL DONORS AND THE AVERAGE AGE WAS 80. |
| 00:48:27 | I WOULD ASK IF IT WAS THE WHOLE LIST WHEN THEY HANDED IT TO ME. |
| 00:48:33 | YOU HAVE A FULL 3 MILLION PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN POLITICS. |
| 00:48:38 | IN THE REAL THING THAT CHANGE, IN TERMS OF THE ABILITY TO GO ON THE AIR, WAS THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE 3 MILLION CITIZENS. |
| 00:48:45 | IF YOU TAKE THOSE CITIZENS AND THE INTERESTS, THE ADVERTISING INDUSTRY COULD BE IN FOR CONTINUED SUCCESS ON ALTERNATE EVEN YEARS. |
| 00:49:02 | I DO NOT KNOW THAT WILL RESULT IN MORE VOLATILITY OF THE ELECTORATE. |
| 00:49:10 | I BELIEVE THAT THE ELECTORATE HAS A SENSE OF WHAT THEY WANT. |
| 00:49:16 | THEY WANT TO WORK -- WORKING AND MIDDLE-CLASS VOTERS ARE EDUCATED AND RESEARCH THINGS ON THE INTERNET AND THEY TEND TO BE MORE SERIOUS THE VOTERS THAN PEOPLE GIVE THEM CREDIT FOR. |
| 00:49:28 | WE MAY HAVE HIS OR CLEAN -- HISTORICAL LLY HIGH LEVELS OF POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FOR SOME TIME. |
| 00:49:44 | >> LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, MARK PENN. |
| 00:49:50 | [APPLAUSE] [CAPTIONING PERFORMED BY NATIONAL CAPTIONING INSTITUTE] |
| 00:49:52 | [CAPTIONS COPYRIGHT NATIONAL CABLE SATELLITE CORP. |
| 00:49:55 | 2010] >> NOW, A LOOK AT POLITICAL ISSUES HEADING INTO THE 2010 MIDTERM ELECTIONS. |
| 00:50:00 | THIS IS ABOUT 20 MINUTES. |
| 00:50:04 | >> "WASHINGTON JOURNAL" CONTINUES. |
| 00:50:07 | HOST: WE ARE PLEASED TO WELCOME BACK A FAMILIAR FACE TO THIS SLOW |
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