Time	Speaker	Text
00:49:17	>>	THANK YOU. I THINK WE HAVE 15 OR 20 MINUTES FOR QUESTIONS. WE WILL TRY TO GET AS MUCH AS WE CAN IN AND IF YOU CAN KEEP YOUR QUESTIONS SURE WE WILL GET AS MANY AS WE CAN IN. IDENTIFY YOURSELF WHEN YOU ASK. I WILL START. YOU ENDED ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE BUT I MUST SAY, LET ME SUM UP MY READING AGAINST 2020 REPORT. AND MY FAR OFF FOR MY CLOTHES? IN A FEW SENTENCES, WHAT A MESS? YOU ARE PREDICTING A MORE DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE PLANET WHERE U.S. MARGIN FOR ERROR IS SMALLER. THE POSSIBILITY OF VIOLENT CONFLICT IS GREATER. THUS THE NEED FOR SKILL AND MORE PARTNERS AS WE ACT AROUND THE WORLD IS MAGNIFIED.
00:50:15	>>	THAT IS EXACTLY THE SAME DIFFERENCE WE OBSERVED WHEN YOU LOOK BACK AND PREPARED 2025 TO 2020. YOU GOT IT.
00:50:28	>>	THAT SHOWS THAT -- YEARS OF JOURNALISTIC TRAINING OF SUPERFICIALLY PUTTING EVERYTHING IN ONE PARAGRAPH. THE NEWS OUT OF THIS IS FOR MANY PEOPLE WILL BE THE TERRORISM PARK. VERY QUICKLY, I CAN UNDERSTAND WHY YOU THINK THE THREAT WILL BE GREATER OF MASS DESTRUCTION FROM SINGLE ACTS. THAT IS LOGICAL. WHY DO YOU THINK THE IDEOLOGICAL SIDE OF IT IS GOING TO RECEIVE? YOU ARE SAYING IT IS GOING TO BE LESS DANGEROUS AND MORE DANGEROUS AT THE SAME TIME. WHY DO YOU THINK IT IS LESS DANGEROUS IDEOLOGICALLY?
00:51:06	>>	THE PART I DID NOT I IDENTIFY. THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR EDUCATION, SELF IMPROVEMENT, THAT ARE THERE. IT FOLLOWS HISTORICAL PATTERNS, PEOPLE WILL BE INTERESTED AND ENGAGED IN THINGS. GOVERNMENTS IF THERE DELIVERING BENEFITS, WILL DEVOTE LESS FIRE ON THE PART OF PEOPLE WHO WANT TO OVERTHROW. THE UNPOPULAR GOVERNMENT WILL BE LESS A TARGET ON THIS. PART OF IT AS THERE IS -- TERRORIST GROUPS ARE OF TWO BROAD CATEGORIES. THOSE WHICH ARE SPECIAL INTEREST OR SPECIAL PURPOSE OR LOCATION. THE IRA. MINUTES DEMISE OR WENT OUT OF BUSINESS. -- MET ITS DEMISE OR WENT OUT OF BUSINESS. HAMAS. THEY ARE NOT BENT ON WOR CONQUEST OR A THREAT TO ANYBODY'S EXISTENCE. THERE IS AL QAEDA WHICH HAD PROCLAIMED A GLOBAL RATIONALE, AS MUSLIMS HAVE LOOKED AT AND LISTEN TO FOR SO YEARS -- FOR SEVERAL YEARS. THERE IS NO THERE THERE. THERE'S NOTHING ATTRACTIVE. THE EXPOSURE TO COMMUNICATIONS AND GREATER OPPORTUNITIES AND THE AGING OF THAT LARGELY EGYPTIAN CORE, THEY MAY BEGIN TO LOOK LIKE THE FARK. THEY CANNOT COMMAND ATTENTION ANYMORE.
00:53:01	>>	I SEE A QUESTION HERE. PLEASE IDENTIFY YOURSELF.
00:53:10	>>	I AM THE AUTHOR OF "SHADOW WORLD". WE COVERED A LOT OF THE SAME GROUND WHICH I WAS HAPPY TO SEE AND MANY OF THE SAME CONCLUSIONS IN TERMS OF THE VARIABLES FOR THE FUTURE. WHAT WAS MISSING BETWEEN OUR RESPECTIVE EFFORTS WAS THE [UNINTELLIGIBLE] AND IN TERMS OF THOSE WHO ARE TRYING TO LEAD US TO A BORDERLESS WORLD WITHOUT SOVEREIGNTY, NO LESS THAN GEORGE SOROS DOWN THE STREET, WHO IS THE OWNER OF THE SHADOW PARTY INSIDE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WHO IS -- JUST ONE AMASS A VICTORY SUPPORTING BARACK OBAMA. HE IS PUSHING THIS ISSUE AND HAS BEEN. THERE ARE MANY SUPPORTERS IN EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA IN THIS COUNTRY. I KNOW IT IS ILLEGAL FOR YOU TO LOOK AT THE NEW LEFT INSIDE THIS COUNTRY. I WAS WONDERING ABOUT YOUR PERSPECTIVE ABOUT THE GLOBAL NEW LEFT HAS SHOWN IN THE REDEFINITION OF SOCIALISM AND REDEFINITION OF MARXISM. AND ALSO THE MOVEMENT BUILDING TO THE ANTI-GLOBALIZATION.
00:54:30	>>	LET ME PICK UP SOMETHING OFF OF THAT THAT IS IN THE REPORT. AND WE DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO GO INTO WITH YOUR PRESENTATION. RELATED SORT OF. THE RISE OF STATE CAPITALISM. THE REPORT ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN PERHAPS I MIGHT BE RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT THE WORLD. IN THE BELIEF THAT YOU STILL ARE SAYING THAT DEMOCRACY IS GOING TO SPREAD. THE LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR GREATER DEMOCRATIZATION EVEN THOUGH ADVANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWING GLOBALIZATION, SUBJECT IN MANY DEMOCRATIZED COUNTRIES TO INCREASING PRESSURES. ONE COULD LOOK IT A DIFFERENT WAY AND SAY THAT CHINA AND RUSSIA, LOOKING AT TRENDS ELSEWHERE MAY NOT BE SO COMPELLED TO GO TO ANYTHING RESEMBLING OUR DEMOCRACY OR EUROPEAN DEMOCRACY. WHY ARE YOU NOT -- YOU ARE KNOCKING THAT DOWN A LITTLE BIT.
00:55:43	>>	MY READING IS TO RAISE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE FIRST TIME BY 2025 IT WILL BE 35 YEARS. OF A CHALLENGER TO THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS, THE DEMOCRATIC MARKET MODEL. THE WAY IN WHICH MANY INTERPRET CHINA'S RISE AND RUSHES RESURGENCE AS THE USE OF STATE CAPITALISM, AS A WAY TO REINFORCE AUTHORITARIAN TENDENCIES AND TO HAVE PERFORMANCE BASED LEGITIMACY, AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM IS DELIVERING THE GOODS AND SERVICES, PEOPLE ARE SATISFIED. THEY'RE NOT MAKING DEMANDS ON THE SYSTEM. THERE IS NOT THE NEED FOR A SAFETY VALVE. OF POLITICAL PARTICIPATION AND EXPRESSION. AND IF THINGS ARE GOING RELATIVELY WELL IN A STATE DOMINATED MARKET ECONOMY, THE DEMOCRATIC THEORY REQUIREMENTS OF PLURALS ASIAN REQUIRING -- PLURALIZATION ARE REQURING, WE ARE HOLDING OUT THE POTENTIAL TO THE RETURN TO THE WESTERN DEMOCRATIC MODEL. NOT DEVELOPED AT LINK THAT ALL IN THIS PAPER -- AT LENGTH IS THAT MUCH OF THE WORLD BECAME DEMOCRATIC IN THE LAST 15 YEARS AND HAS GONE THROUGH MORE PAIN THAN GAIN. THEY HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS AWAY FROM POPULIST REGIMES. AWAY FROM SOCIALIST REGIMES. AWAY FROM ONE PARTY DOMINATED SYSTEMS AND ARE WAITING FOR THE PAYOFF. THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SITUATION IS LIKELY TO EXACERBATE THAT. I DO NOT THINK -- I WOULD BE SANGUINE ABOUT THE NEAR-TERM INTERPLAY. WE HAVE AN ALTERNATIVE MODEL AS THERE WAS IN THE 1950'S AND 1960'S. WE ARE ADOPTING SOCIALISM AND PLANNED ECONOMY WAS [UNINTELLIGIBLE] BECAUSE GDP GROWTH AND RECOVERY AFTER THE WAR REMAINED WELL. CHINA DID PRETTY WELL FOR SOME TIME. IT HAPPENED TO BE A DISASTROUS CHOICE FOR THE COUNTRIES WHO MADE IT BECAUSE IT RAN OUT OF STEAM. I THINK WE COULD HAVE INTERESTS IN ALTERNATIVE MODELS GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE STATE'S ARE NOT VERY DEMOCRATIC.
00:58:35	>>	FINANCIAL DIFFICULTIES COULD CUT BOTH WAYS? A $50 A BARREL OF OIL COULD MAKE SOME COUNTRY'S DEMOCRATIC BUT SOME ARE ON THE VERGE.
00:58:53	>>	THE SCALE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS DOES NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN APPEARANCE IN YOUR REPORT. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT IT COULD BE QUITE A GAME CHANGER. NOT SIMPLY BECAUSE OF WHAT IT IS GOING TO BE DOING TO THE RELATIVE STANDING OF SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTRIES. BUT ALSO IN THE WAY THAT IT SEEMS TO HAVE A PARTICULARLY TOUGH AFFECT UPON A LOT OF THE MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES. MEXICO, TAIWAN, TURKEY, INDONESIA, SOUTH KOREA, SAUDI ARABIA. THOSE COUNTRIES ARE EMERGING AS A COUNTERBALANCE, SOME KIND OF EXTRA CUSHION OF SUPPORT FOR GLOBALIZATION. THE FACT THAT THEY ARE GETTING PARTICULARLY [UNINTELLIGIBLE] PLUS THE FACT THAT CHINA IS ABOUT TO HIT A DEMOGRAPHIC WAHL AS YOU MENTIONED AND THE RUSSIA IS IN THE SAME, IT SUGGESTED THAT SOME OF THE FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT [UNINTELLIGIBLE] THAT YOU ARE MAKING MIGHT BE ALREADY OVERTAKEN. IF WE DO NOT GET SOME KIND OF HANDLE UPON THIS FINANCIAL CRISIS, PRETTY QUICKLY, THAT IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WE ARE IN A VERY DIFFERENT KIND OF WORLD. PEOPLE ALREADY ARE SAYING IT IS MUCH WORSE AND IT COULD BE LIKE 1974 OR 1975. THE PRESIDENT SAID THE OTHER DAY THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 1930. THAT WOULD CHANGE EVERYTHING. INCLUDING THE RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT. INCLUDING THE LOGICAL ARGUMENTS YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT. HOW MUCH DO YOU EXCEPT THAT WE COULD BE IN FOR A VERY DIFFERENT KIND OF FUTURE?
01:00:42	>>	I ABSOLUTELY ACCEPT THAT WE COULD BE COMPLETELY WRONG. IT IS NOT A PREDICTION. IT IS INTENDED TO STIMULATE THINKING THROUGH THESE PROBLEMS. LET ME TRY TO MAKE IT SPECIFIC IN WAYS THAT I THINK ARE IMPLICIT IN THE REPORT. THE DURATION OF THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN. IT IS AFFECTING EVERYBODY. INCLUDING THE BRITS. REPORTS VIDET OF GROWTH IN CHINA SLOWING TO 7% OR 8%. WE WOULD LOVE 7% OR 8% GROWTH AND UNLESS CHINA HAS 8% GROWTH IT CANNOT PROVIDE JOBS GOT THE CODE WORD THAT COMES OF AGE. -- THE COHORT THAT COMES OF AGE. KEEPING PACE WITH THE GROWTH OF YOUNG PEOPLE. THAT IS A DAUNTING CHALLENGE AND NOW YOU HAVE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE CONCENTRATED IN LARGE CITIES, MAKING DEMANDS ON THE POLITICAL SYSTEM TO BE RESPONSIVE. TAKE THAT AND PUT IT INTO OTHER POLITICAL SYSTEMS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TURMOIL. THE OTHER PART OF THE ANSWER IS I WOULD CALL YOUR ATTENTION TO ONE OF THE BOXES IN THE STUDY WHICH IS THE NEED FOR MODESTY IN EFFORTS TO ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE. THE ORIGIN OF THIS WAS A LUNCH CONVERSATION AMONG THE THREE OF US. IF WE WERE DOING THIS IN 1908 INSTEAD OF 2000, -- 2008 AND WE RAN IT FORWARD IN SIMILAR INCREMENTS, THE WORLD WAS WRONG EVERY TIME. OF WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED. WHEN GLOBALIZATION WAS RAGING. AFTER THE FIRST WORLD WAR, THE VERSE EYEPIEC-- YOU CAN SAY WE MISSED THE BALL THE SOVIET UNION. -- THE FALL OF THE SOVIET UNION. THE ACCURACY OF PREDICTION IS AN IMPORTANT FLAG HERE. YOU CAN TAKE EVERY ONE OF THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THIS AND IF YOU FLIP IT AROUND, IT ALSO HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS. THE MAGNITUDE MAY BE DIFFERENT AND THE DIRECTION MAY BE DIFFERENT. BUT THEY ARE GOING TO INTERACT IN SIMILAR WAYS. THAT IS THE CONTENTION.
01:03:28	>>	ON THE POINT THAT FRED KEMP MENTIONED. THE NUMBERS ARE IMPRESSIVE. A LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE AND TWO NUCLEAR POWERS AND ENORMOUS ENERGY RESOURCES. THERE IS ONE IMPORTANT FACT AND THAT IS THE CONFLICT BETWEEN CHINA AND RUSSIA. WHICH MITIGATES THE POTENTIAL OF BEING THIS THREAT TO THE WEST. WHAT IS YOUR READING OF THIS?
01:04:04	>>	THE SCENARIO THAT WE USE TO MAKE THAT POINT. IT IS DONE IN A WAY THAT IS PEACAN EXPRESSION OF SURPRISE. THEY DISTRUSTED EACH OTHER MORE THAN THEY DISTRUSTED US. THE MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE. AS AN ELEMENT IN THIS. NECESSITY CAN MAKE STRANGE BEDFELLOWS. THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT, WHO IS PERCEIVED TO BE MEDDLING IN INTERNAL AFFAIRS AND WHO IS PERCEIVED TO BE A RATHER BENIGN EXTERNAL BALANCER OR PUBLIC GOOD PROVIDER. IT CAN GO MANY WAYS. THE BROAD POINT I WANT TO MAKE, THERE ARE NO ETERNAL FRIENDS AND ENEMIES. KISSINGER, AMONG OTHERS, THE ONLY THING THAT IS LASTING IS INTEREST BUT INTEREST CHANGES. IN A WORLD THAT IS GOING TO BE AS MUCH IN FLUX AS WE'RE ANTICIPATING THIS, PROJECTING FORWARD UNCHANGED ALIGNMENTS OF BUSINESSES, NGOS, GOVERNMENTS, RELIGIONS, SEEMS TO BE MORE HAZARDOUS THAN NOT. . . DO YOU SEE THE U.S. AND NATO GROWING STRONGER BECAUSE THEY ARE LOSING THEIR RELATIVE IMPORTANCE?
01:06:22	>>	THE SIMILARITIES AND COMPLEMENT'S OF CULTURES, VALUES, POLITICAL SYSTEM, THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE ECONOMY'S -- INTERDEPENDENCE OF THE ECONOMIES THAT WILL PERSIST. PART OF THE POINT WE WERE SUGGESTING IS THAT EUROPE WRESTLES WITH A DEMOCRAT -- WRESTLES WITH DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS, DEALS WITH ENERGY CHALLENGES THAT AND HE THAT IS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE COHESIVE IN 2025 THAT IT IS TODAY SEEMS UNLIKELY. IT IS NOT A FAILURE OF THE GREAT EXPERIMENT, PROBABLY NOT A DETERIORATION OR A RETREAT, BUT MAYBE A PLATEAU FOR A WHILE. A EUROPE THAT WILL BE EVEN MORE INWARD FOCUSED THAN IT IS NOW, AND THEREFORE NOT AS READILY AVAILABLE AS A PARTNER FOR ACTIVITIES IN THIS. AGAIN, LEADERSHIP IN IMMENSE AND CRISIS CAN FOCUS THE MIND IN WAYS THAT ARE UNPREDICTABLE. IT MIGHT HAPPEN THAT THE EUROPEANS AND AMERICANS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DRAWN TOGETHER THAN APART. ONE OF THE AREAS OF COLLABORATION AND COOPERATION IS AROUND CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY, FINDING WAYS TO WORK ON THE PROBLEMS TOGETHER. AS AN ELEMENT OF NATIONAL SECURITY, THERE SEEMS TO BE A LIKELY FUTURE.
01:08:17	>>	THANK YOU, TOM. WE HAVE REACHED THE END OF THE TIME. WHAT HE SAID AT THE OUTSET WAS THAT WHAT YOU TOOK FROM THE STUDY WAS THE IMPORTANCE OF LEADERSHIP. I REALLY COMMEND YOU TO READ EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THESE PAGES. IF YOU WANT TO GET IT, YOU CAN GO TO OUR WEBSITE. WE WILL LINK YOU THERE. THIS IS OUR SHOW.
01:08:53	>>	I WANT TO TIP MY HAT TO A COUPLE OF PEOPLE BEFORE WE CLOSE. I WANT TO TIP MY HAT TO YOUR PREDECESSOR, BOB LEGENDS. HE WAS THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LAST REPORT. HE HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN OUR PARALLEL WORK AND HAS JUST WRITTEN AN ARTICLE ON A GLOBAL GRAND BARGAIN. WE DREW POSSIBLE CONCLUSIONS FROM IT SOME OF WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. JOE SNYDER HAS BEEN LEADING THE WORK HERE WITH HIS DEPUTY, AND WE HAVE BEEN VERY ENGAGED IN THIS WORK AND ALSO UPTICK OUR HAT TO JIM TOWNSEND. HE DID ACKNOWLEDGE MATT BOROUGHS, COUNSELOR OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL. YOU HAVE ALSO GENEROUSLY ACKNOWLEDGED HIM IN THE REPORT AS WELL. HE HAS THE TASK I AM NOT SURE I WOULD WANT, WHICH IS LOOKING AT LONG-TERM PLANNING WHEN YOU REALLY DO NOT KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT WEEK. YOU DID SAY THE FUTURE IS NOW. WE HAVE SEEN OIL PRICES DROP IN A WAY WE COULD NOT HAVE IMAGINED. WE HAVE SEEN THE STOCK PRICES DROP IN A WAY WE COULD NEVER HAVE IMAGINED. AT ANY RATE, THANK YOU TO YOU ALL, AND THANK YOU, TOM.
01:10:31	>>	THANK YOU FOR HOSTING. [APPLAUSE]