Time	Speaker	Text
00:00:00	Cummings, Elijah	TODAY, THE LABOR DEPARTMENT REPORTED A 9.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR LAST MONTH. THAT IS .5% HIGHER THAN APRIL. THE COMMISSIONER OF THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TESTIFIED. IT IS AN HOUR AND 15 MINUTES. I WELCOME COMMISSIONER HALL AND HIS COLLEAGUES FROM THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TO BRIEF US ON THE LATEST EMPLOYMENT DATA. THIS MORNING'S RELEASE REPORTED MAY JOB LOSSES TOTALING 345,000. ALMOST HALF OF THE LOSS OF RECENT MONTHS, BUT AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 9.4%, A JUMP OF HALF A PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH. ADDING OF DISCOURAGED WORKERS AND PART-TIME WORKERS WHO CANNOT FIND FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE JUMPED TO 16.4%, THE HIGHEST RATE SINCE THE GOVERNMENT STARTED COLLECTING THIS INFORMATION IN 1994. IT WAS ALSO ANNOUNCED RECENTLY THAT THE INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL. THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK HELD INTEREST RATES STEADY YESTERDAY , SIGNALING EXPECTATIONS THAT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY MAY JUST HAVE BOTTOMED OUT. I AM ENCOURAGED BY THE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CONSUMER PROVIDENCE -- CONFIDENCE, BUT THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SOBERING COUNTERPOINT. INCREASED CONSUMER SPENDING HAS YET TO TRANSLATE INTO ACTUAL SPENDING BY CONSUMERS OR BUSINESSES. RATHER, FAMILIES ARE SAVING, AND I DO NOT BLAME THEM. THEY SEE THAT MORE THAN ONE IN FOUR UNEMPLOYED WORKERS HAS BEEN UNEMPLOYED FOR OVER SIX MONTHS AND THAT THE MEDIAN DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT IS NOW 14.9 WEEKS, A RECORD HIGH SINCE THE SERIES STARTED IN 1967. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF A RECESSION, TOTALING 6 MILLION JOBS, HAVE LET THESE ORDINARY, HARD-WORKING AMERICANS ON PRECARIOUS FOOTING. WHEN A WORKER IS LAID OFF, ECONOMISTS SAY THAT PERSON EXPERIENCES INCOME SHOT. THIS IS A VAST UNDERSTATEMENT. NOW, UNEMPLOYED FAMILIES MUST WORK THERE ANY SAVINGS THEY HAVE TO PAY BILLS AND CONTINUE TO FEED THEIR CHILDREN. AS HOME VALUES FALL AND MORTGAGES GO UNPAID, THERE SUDDENLY LOOKING FOR -- LOOKING FOR CLOSURE IN THE FACE. WHILE THE FORECLOSURE CRISIS STARTED WITH HOMES THAT FELL VICTIM TO PLUNGING VALUES, AND THEN MOVED TO THE SUBPRIME SECTOR, THOSE FACING INTEREST RATE HIKES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED AS WELL. "THE NEW YORK TIMES" WROTE IN MAY THAT "THIS FIRST -- THIRD WAVE OF FORECLOSURES CAN BE ATTRIBUTED IN LARGE PART TO THE RISING TIDE OF UNEMPLOYMENT." FOR MANY HOMEOWNERS, SOME DEGREE OF HELP IS AVAILABLE. THERE ARE STRONG MORTGAGE MODIFICATION PROGRAMS IN PLACE THAT ALLOW HOMEOWNERS TO DECREASE THEIR PAYMENT AND WORK OUT SOLUTIONS TO STAY IN THEIR HOMES. FOR THE UNEMPLOYED, HOWEVER, WHEN HOME VALUES FALL, A MORTGAGE MODIFICATION WILL TAKE THEM ONLY SO FAR. WHAT A MODIFICATION CANNOT DO IS BRING BACK AN INCOME OR HEALTH INSURANCE SO WITHOUT NEW AND CREATIVE WAYS TO HELP THE UNEMPLOYED, THESE AMERICANS MAY STILL LOSE THEIR HOMES. WE ALSO KNOW THAT A JOB LOST DOES NOT JUST AFFECT THE INDIVIDUAL EMPLOYEE AND HIS OR HER HOME. SURROUNDING HOME VALUES FALL WITH EACH FORECLOSURE, AND SOME CITIES HAVE SEEN MORE THAN 100 FORECLOSURES EVERY DAY. FURTHER, OUR SAFETY NETS ARE STRETCHED THIN, AND THAT IS ALL SOME FOLKS HAVE. I READ YESTERDAY IN "USA TODAY WILL GO UP THAT ONE IN EVERY SIX AMERICAN DOLLARS IS IN EMPLOYMENT, SOCIAL SECURITY, OR PUBLIC BENEFITS. 14 STATES HAVE ALREADY GONE THROUGH AVAILABLE UNEMPLOYMENT RESERVE FUNDS, SO THE EFFECTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT ARE BEING FELT IN SO MANY PLACES BY ALL OF US. ACCORDINGLY, THIS CONGRESS AND PRESIDENT OBAMA HAVE TAKEN DECISIVE ACTION AGAINST THE RECESSION THROUGH THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT, AS WELL AS LEGISLATION ADDRESSING CREDIT FOR MORTGAGE LENDING AND UNFAIR CREDIT CARD PRACTICES. WE ARE ALSO HELPING PEOPLE AT THE LOCAL LEVEL. TOMORROW IN BALTIMORE, WE ARE PUTTING OVER 500 BORROWERS TOGETHER WITH OVER 19 LENDERS TO TRY TO WORK OUT MORTGAGE SOLUTIONS. I HOPE EVERYONE WHO SHOWS UP AND SAVE HIS OR HER HOME, BUT I SUSPECT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE, AS THE UNEMPLOYED STILL MAY NOT QUALIFY FOR MODIFICATIONS. IT WILL BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE -- ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO MODIFY LONG YOU DO NOT HAVE A JOB. KNOWING THIS, I LOOK FORWARD TO THE TESTIMONY OF DR. HALL, AS WE MUST UNDERSTAND EXACTLY WHERE WE ARE IN THIS CRISIS AND JUST HOW FAR WE HAVE TO GO. WITH THAT, I WILL YIELD TO MR. BRADY.
00:05:55	Brady, Kevin	I JOIN YOU IN LOGAN COMMISSIONER HALL BEFORE THE COMMITTEE THIS MORNING. THE INCREASE IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS DISTURBING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST, THE HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REFLECTS GREATER HARDSHIP FOR AMERICAN WORKERS AND FAMILIES. SECOND, ALONG WITH OTHER ECONOMIC DATA, IT REFLECTS THE CONTINUING WEAKNESS IN THE ECONOMY. THIRD, HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNDERSCORES THE UNREALISTIC NATURE OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS, BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE STIMULUS SPENDING WOULD CAP RISING UNEMPLOYMENT. THE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT DECLINE REPORTED TODAY SHOWS THAT THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO CONTRACT. THAT THREE AND 45,000 JOB DROP IN MAY PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT IS A SIGNIFICANT MONTHLY JOB LOSS AND IS BROADLY BASED IN MANY INDUSTRIES. ALTHOUGH THE PACE OF JOB LOSS WAS NOT AS TERRIBLE AS RECENT MONTHS, MANUFACTURING CONTINUES TO SUFFER LARGE EMPLOYMENT DECLINES. THERE ARE EFFORTS SUGGESTING THE ECONOMY MAY BOTTOM OUT IN COMING MONTHS. FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. SOME MEASURES OF MANIC FACTORING ACTIVITY HAVE STABILIZED, AND SOME DATA RELATED TO HOUSING CONSTRUCTION ARE LESS NEGATIVE. HOWEVER, MEASURES TO PREVENT FORECLOSURES ARE NOT WORKING WELL, AND REDEFAULT RATES ARE VERY HIGH, WITH MORE LOAN-LOSS IS TO COME. BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS COLLAPSED, AND THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CONTINUES TO BE UNDER STRESS. CONSUMER SPENDING IS WEAK. EXPORTS ARE FALLING, AS MANY OF OUR MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING RECESSION. I CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ADMINISTRATION'S UNREALISTIC ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS WHICH WERE THE BASIS FOR THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGET PROPOSAL. "THE ECONOMIST" MAGAZINE CALLED THESE ASSUMPTIONS DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY UNDERSTATE THE TRUE COST OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S DEFICIT SPENDING AND DEBT ACCUMULATION. UNFORTUNATELY, ACCORDING TO THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE, ADMINISTRATION POLICIES WILL TRIPLE THE NATIONAL DEBT TO A LEVEL OF 17.3 TRILLION DOLLARS BY 2019. THIS AVALANCHE OF GOVERNMENT DEFICITS AND DEBT IS ONE REASON LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES, INCLUDING MORTGAGE RATES, ARE ON THE RISE. A CENTRAL PROBLEM IS THAT THE ADMINISTRATION ASSUMED THAT A STIMULUS SPENDING SPREE WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE ECONOMY. AS THIS POSTER SHOWS, AS WE COMPARE PROJECTIONS BY THE WHITE HOUSE VERSUS THE REAL ECONOMY, JUST IN JANUARY, TWO TOP ADMINISTRATION ECONOMISTS PREDICTED THAT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WOULD NOT EXCEED 8% THIS YEAR OR NEXT IF THE STIMULUS WAS ENACTED. THE ADMINISTRATION FOLLOWED UP BY FORECASTING AN AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 8.1% OF ALL OF 2009. HOWEVER, AS IS POSTER SHOWS, THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS WELL ABOVE 9%. IT IS ENOUGH TO SHOW THAT THE ASSUMPTION ABOUT THE POSITIVE IMPACT OF THE STIMULUS WAS WRONG. IF THE FORECAST FOR CONSISTENT, IT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE GDP WILL BE LOWER THAN PROJECTED. AN ECONOMIC UPTURN SHOULD OCCUR BY NEXT YEAR, IF ONLY DUE TO THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT INJECTED INTO THE ECONOMY BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE. HOWEVER, THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROBABLY WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE WHITE HOUSE'S ROSY SCENARIO FOR 2010. SO WHAT WILL BE THE SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXT YEAR? WITH MANY HOUSEHOLDS FORCED TO PAY DOWN DEBT, A SURGE IN CONSUMPTION IS NOT LIKELY. EXCESSIVE LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND DEBT IS ALREADY BATTLING FINANCIAL MARKETS. SO MUCH MORE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS NOT A FEASIBLE OPTION. U.S. EXPORTS MAY BE CONSTRAINED BY WEAKNESS IN OTHER COUNTRIES AND BY RETALIATION AGAINST OUR OWN TRADE POLICIES. THAT LEAVES INVESTMENT AS A MAIN SOURCE OF GROWTH. HOW MANY WILL UNDERTAKE LONG- TERM INVESTMENTS WHEN FACING A TIDAL WAVE OF NEW TAXES, ENTITLEMENT SPENDING, AND INFLATION? FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL RELY HEAVILY ON INVESTMENT, BUT MORE TAXES, GOVERNMENT BORROWING, REGULATION, AND INFLATION ALL WILL HIT INVESTORS VERY HARD. GOVERNMENT IS NOT EVIL, AND PROVIDES MORE BENEFITS THAN COSTS. BEYOND THIS POINT IT BECOMES COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE. POLICYMAKERS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT EXCESSIVE GOVERNMENT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CHOKE OFF HEALTHY ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH. IT'S A LONG-TERM RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IS REDUCED FROM 3% TO 2% OR BELOW, THE RESULT WILL BE MUCH SLOWER JOB GROWTH AND HIGHER LEVELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT. CONGRESS SHOULD WAKE UP TO THE DAMAGE THAT IT HAS INFLICTED AND STOP ENACTING LEGISLATION THAT ONLY INCREASES THE BURDEN OF GOVERNMENT ON THE ECONOMY. WITH THAT I WILL YIELD BACK.
00:10:56	Cummings, Elijah	THANK YOU VERY MUCH, MR. BRADY. WE ARE PLEASED -- MR. BURGESS, DO YOU HAVE AN OPENING STATEMENT? A YIELD FOR FIVE MINUTES.
00:11:18	Burgess, Michael	THANK YOU FOR THE INDULGENCE. EACH MONTH'S THIS COMMITTEE RECEIVES THE RELEASE OF BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, AND EACH MONTH WE CONTINUE TO FILL THE NEED FOR WHAT PRESIDENT CLINTON USED TO CALL THE LASER LIGHT FOCUS ON THE ECONOMY. THIS MONTH WE HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT JOB LOSSES WITHOUT ANY FOCUS ON ECONOMIC PRIORITIES. PERHAPS CONGRESS NEEDS TO APPOINT SOMEONE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR FOCUSING THE EFFORTS ON DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ISSUES. WE COULD USE SOMEONE IN THE ROOM WHO WILL SAY HOW EXACTLY WILL THIS NEW INITIATIVE, THIS NEW CZAR, OR A BILL THAT WILL HAVE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS, HOW WILL THIS CREATE NEW JOBS? TWO YEARS -- TWO WEEKS AGO WE HEARD A LOT ABOUT CAP AND TRADE. THE REPORT RELEASED ON TUESDAY BY THE COUNCIL ON ECONOMIC ADVISERS CLAIMS THAT THE PRESIDENT'S CONCEPT OF HEALTH CARE REFORM WILL CREATE 500,000 JOBS A YEAR. WELL, WE CAN ALL LOOK FORWARD TO THOSE POTENTIAL JOBS IN 2012, 2014, 2016 WHEN THEY TAKE EFFECT, BUT WHERE IS THE PLAN TO BUILD JOB GROWTH THIS MONTH OR EVEN THIS YEAR? LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS RELEASED THIS MORNING, THE ONLY INDUSTRY THAT IS ON A HIRING SPREE IS US, THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. IT ONLY MAKES SENSE THAT AT THE RAPID PACE, THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WOULD NEED MORE EMPLOYEES TO KEEP UP. GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS A BOON FOR PEOPLE LIVING HERE, BUT GOVERNMENT HIRING IS NOT AN EFFECTIVE METHOD FOR AGGREGATE JOB GROWTH OR ALL STATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS. WE CAN LOOK AT THE HOME FORECLOSURE NUMBERS. NATIONALLY, THE FORECLOSURE STATED RATE IS 1.4% COMPARED TO JUST 1% A YEAR EARLIER. THE FORECLOSURE INVENTORY STANDS AT 3.9% COMPARED TO 2.5% A YEAR EARLIER, WHILE 7.2% OF MORTGAGES OR SERIOUSLY DELINQUENT, COMPARED TO 4% THE YEAR EARLIER. IN TEXAS, THE INVENTORY OF FORECLOSED MORTGAGES IS 1.7% COMPARED TO 1.5% THE PRIOR QUARTER. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THESE TRENDS ARE TROUBLING. WHAT IS MOST TROUBLING IS THE FACT THAT THESE ARE NOT FOR CLOSURES DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED UPTICK ON THE ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGE OR THE RESULT OF SOME SUBPRIME MORTGAGE SWINDLE. THESE PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN PURGED FROM THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. THESE FORECLOSURE NUMBERS REPRESENT HOMES IN TROUBLE OR LOST DUE TO LOSS OF FAMILY INCOME RELATED TO LOSS OF JOBS. WE CAN TAKE AWAY THE BANK'S ABILITY TO FORCE -- TO FORECLOSE, BUT THESE ACTIONS IGNORE THE SOURCE OF THE PROBLEM. THEY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BEFORE MAJOR SOCIAL INITIATIVES LIKE AN PURNELL FORM THROUGH CAP AND TRADE LEGISLATION AND BEFORE CONGRESS UNDERTAKES TO NAME AN ADDITIONAL 50 POST OFFICES. I CALL FOR ALL HANDS ON DECK AND ALL EFFORTS TO FOCUS ON IMPROVING THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY. I WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JOB LOSSES IS IF THE GOVERNMENT IS ALLOWED TO CLOSE 789 CHRYSLER DEALERSHIPS, 1100 GM DEALERSHIPS, AS PART OF THE AUTO INDUSTRY RESTRUCTURING PLAN. IT IS INTERESTING THAT ALL THESE DECISIONS ARE MADE BY SOMEONE IN THE WEST WING OF THE WHITE HOUSE WHO HAS NEVER EVEN HELD A PRIVATE SECTOR JOB. IF THESE DEALERSHIPS ARE COMFORTABLE STAYING OPEN AND THE BANKS IN THE COMMUNITY CAN CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CAPITAL, I CANNOT SEE A REASON WHY THESE DEALERSHIPS SHOULD BE FORCED TO CLOSE. WHO ELSE IS GOING TO SELL THESE LITTLE GREEN CARS IF WE DO NOT HAVE THE DEALERSHIPS THERE TO PROVIDE THE SERVICES? I LIKE TO THANK DR. HALL FOR TESTIFYING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE AND FOR HIS TEAM'S IMPORTANT WORK AT THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. I WILL YIELD BACK THE BALANCE OF MY TIME. . . BURGESS. I'M VERY@@@@@@ @ @ @ @ @ @ A#A@ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ JOB LOSSES AVERAGE 643,000 PER MONTH DURING THE PRIOR SIX MONTHS. IN MAY, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ROSE TO 9.4%. SINCE THE RECESSION BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 2007, PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT HAS FALLEN BY 6 MILLION, AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT TAGE POINTS. JOB LOSSES CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD IN MAY BUT THE RATE OF DECLINE MODERATED IN CONSTRUCTION AND SEVERAL SERVICE-PROVIDING INDUSTRIES. LARGE JOB LOSSES CONTINUED IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR WITH EMPLOYMENT DECLINES IN NEARLY ALL COMPONENT INDUSTRIES. EMPLOYMENT FELL SHARPLY IN MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS, MACHINERY AND FABRICATED METALS. SINCE THE START OF THE RECESSION, MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT HAS DECREASED BY 1.8 MILLION ACCOUNTING FOR 30% OF THE JOB LOSS DURING THIS DOWNTURN. CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT DECLINED BY 59,000 IN MAY, HALF THE AVERAGE OF THE PREVIOUS SIX MONTHS. JOB LOSSES MODERATED IN THE PRIVATE SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES WITH EMPLOYMENT FALLING BY 113,000 IN MAY COMPARED WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY DECLINE OF 356,000 IN THE PRIOR SIX MONTHS. EMPLOYMENT WAS LITTLE CHANGED IN TEMPORARY HELP, RETAIL TRADE, LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY AND THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY ADDED JOBS IN MAY THIS IS ABOUT IN LINE WITH A TREND THUS AS FAR IN 2009. IN MAY, AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS FOR PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR WERE UP BY 2 CENTS TO $18.54. OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS HAVE RISEN BY 3.1%. FROM APRIL 2008 TO APRIL 2009, THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS AND CLERICAL WORKERS DECLINED BY 1.2%. TURNING TO MEASURES FROM YOUR SURVEY OF HOUSEHOLDS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INCREASED FROM 8.9 TO 9.4% OVER THE MONTH. THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED ROSE BY 787,000 TO 14.5 MILLION. SINCE THE RECESSION BEGAN, THE JOBLESS RATE HAS INCREASED BY 4.5 PERCENTAGE POINTS AND THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PERSONS HAS GROWN BY 7 MILLION. AMONG THE UNEMPLOYED THE NUMBER WHO HAVE BEEN OUT OF WORK 27 WEEKS OR MORE INCREASED BY 268,000 TO 3.9 MILLION. THESE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED REPRESENT 2.5% OF THE LABOR FORCE, THE HIGHEST PROPORTION SINCE 1983. OVER THE MONTH THE EMPLOYMENT OF POPULATION RATIO EDGED DOWN TO 59.7% THE LOWEST LEVELS SINCE OCTOBER, 1984. SINCE THE RECESSION BEGAN, THE EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO HAS FALLEN BY 3 PERCENTAGE POINTS. AMONG THE EMPLOYED THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WORKING PART-TIME WOULD PREFER FULL-TIME WORK WAS LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE SECOND CONSERVATIVE MONTH. AT 9.1 MILLION IN MAY INVOLUNTARY PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT WAS 4.5 MILLION HIGHER THAN AT THE START OF THE RECESSION. AMONG THOSE OUTSIDE THE LABOR FORCE, THAT IS PERSONS NEITHER WORKING NOR LOOKING FOR WORK, THE NUMBER OF DISCOURAGED WORKERS WAS 792,000 IN MAY UP FROM 400,000 A YEAR EARLIER. THESE INDIVIDUALS ARE NOT CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR WORK BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE NO JOBS ARE AVAILABLE TO THEM. IN SUMMARY, NONFOREIGN EMPLOYMENT PAYROLL FELL COMPARED WITH THE AVERAGE MONTHLY DECLINE OF 643,000 FOR THE PREVIOUS SIX MONTHS. WHILE JOB LOSSES CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD DECLINES MODERATED IN CONSTRUCTION AND IN A NUMBER OF SERVICE PROVIDING INDUSTRIES THAT THAT EMPLOYMENT ROSE BY 2.9%. MY COLLEAGUES AND I WOULD BE GLAD TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS.
00:19:39	Cummings, Elijah	THANK YOU VERY MUCH, COMMISSIONER HALL. COMMISSIONER, I THINK WE HAD A LOSS OF ABOUT 652,000 JOBS IN MARCH. IS THAT RIGHT? IS THAT THE ESTIMATE.
00:19:52	Hall, Keith	YES, THAT'S CORRECT.
00:19:55	Cummings, Elijah	AND WE HAD A LOSS OF ABOUT 504,000 IN APRIL; IS THAT CORRECT?
00:19:59	Hall, Keith	YES, THAT'S CORRECT.
00:20:02	Cummings, Elijah	AND THIS MONTH WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 345,000; IS THAT RIGHT
00:20:08	Hall, Keith	THAT'S CORRECT.
00:20:11	Cummings, Elijah	TELL US THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THAT. IS THAT A SLOWING DOWN OF THE JOB LOSSES, THE RATE OF JOB LOSSES. IS THAT A REASONABLE STATEMENT THERE?
00:20:20	Hall, Keith	YES, IT IS. WE'VE HAD A STEADY MODERATION IN JOB LOSS FOR -- IT LOOKS LIKE FOUR STRAIGHT MONTHS NOW.
00:20:28	Cummings, Elijah	AND WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU? I MEAN, WHEN YOU -- YOU KNOW, YOU'RE TRYING TO LOOK FORWARD, WHAT DOES THAT SAY? AND WHAT DO YOU ATTRIBUTE THAT TO?
00:20:38	Hall, Keith	WELL, THIS IS -- WELL, THIS IS CLEARLY NOT AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE JOB MARKET YET. THIS IS -- THIS IS IN MODERATION IN THE JOB LOSS. SO THIS IS -- THIS IS WHAT WE HOPE TO SEE ON THE WAY TOWARDS EVENTUALLY JOB GROWTH.
00:20:54	Cummings, Elijah	NOW, WE'VE HEARD A NUMBER OF HERE RECENTLY FOLKS THE SO-CALLED EXPERTS SAY THAT WE ARE -- IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE COMING OUT OF THIS RECESSION AT THE END OF THE YEAR OR SOME WHO ARE NOT -- DON'T, YOU KNOW, LOOK AT IT A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVELY SAY SOMETIME IN NEXT YEAR. NOW, WHAT DO YOU SEE?
00:21:16	Hall, Keith	IT'S HARD FOR ME TO PROJECT BUT I WILL SAY THIS SORT OF MODERATION IS CONSISTENT WITH -- WITH AN IMPROVING JOB MARKET AS FAR AS WHETHER IT WILL HOLD -- CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE FUTURE, I CAN'T SAY.
00:21:37	Cummings, Elijah	NOW, IS IT POSSIBLE TO IDENTIFY THE EFFECTS OF THE STIMULUS BILL WITH REGARD TO EMPLOYMENT DATA? I MEAN, IS THERE ANY CORRELATION YOU CAN MAKE FROM LOOKING AT WHAT YOU SEE THERE?
00:21:47	Hall, Keith	IT'S HARD FOR US TO DO THAT. WE'RE RATHER FOCUSED ON JUST SORT OF GETTING THE NUMBERS CORRECT AND WE DON'T TEND TO TRY TO LOOK AND SEE WHERE THE STIMULUS SPENDING HAS OCCURRED.
00:21:56	Cummings, Elijah	I UNDERSTAND.
00:21:57	Hall, Keith	AND WHERE WE'RE SEEING THE IMPROVEMENTS.
00:22:00	Cummings, Elijah	WELL, WHERE HAVE THE IMPROVEMENTS BEEN?
00:22:02	Hall, Keith	THEY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF MANUFACTURING. SO WE HAVE HAD A MODERATION OF JOB LOSS AND VERY MUCH IN THE SERVICE-PROVIDING SECTOR WHICH IS INTERESTING BECAUSE IN THE PRIOR SIX MONTHS, ABOUT HALF THE JOB LOSS WAS IN SERVICES AND NOW IT'S MAYBE A THIRD OF THE JOB LOSS.
00:22:20	Cummings, Elijah	AND WHAT -- WHY IS THAT SO SIGNIFICANT? I THINK IT'S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THIS DOWNTURN SORT OF STARTED IN MANUFACTURING AND CONSTRUCTION. AND WHEN THINGS GOT REALLY -- REALLY SEVERE, THE MOST SEVERE JOB LOSS -- AND THIS JOB LOSS IS STILL SEVERE, IT WAS VERY WIDESPREAD AND REALLY INCLUDED EVEN SERVICES. SO HAVING SERVICES BACK OUT IS A GOOD SIGN. IT'S NOT A GOOD SIGN, OBVIOUSLY, FOR MANUFACTURING BUT IT'S A GOOD SIGN THAT -- WELL, IT'S A GOOD SIGN THAT WE'RE SEEING BROAD MODERATION.
00:22:59	Cummings, Elijah	NOW, THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT REPORTS WITH REGARD TO -- I THINK THE "NEW YORK TIMES" CARRIED AN ARTICLE JUST RECENTLY SAYING BASICALLY WE HAVE A SITUATION WHERE, FOR EXAMPLE, NEW YORK THEY PREDICT NOW THAT THEY WILL NOT GET 44% OF THE EMPLOYMENT TAXES. IN OTHER WORDS, EARNINGS TAXES BECAUSE, I GUESS, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS DOWN. WHEN YOU HEAR FIGURES LIKE THAT, HOW DOES THAT AFFECT -- HOW DO YOU SEE THAT AFFECTING THIS JOB SITUATION? IN OTHER WORDS, STATE GOVERNMENTS GETTING LESS MONEY POSSIBLY AND THE'S ANOTHER REPORT THAT SAYS THAT A NUMBER OF THESE STATE GOVERNMENTS ARE JUST IN ALMOST EVERY AREA THAT THEY HAD PREDICTED THAT THEY WOULD BE GAINING FUNDS, THEY'RE ACTUALLY COMING UP VERY SHORT. AND SO WHAT DO YOU SEE WITH REGARD TO STATE GOVERNMENT? HOW DOES THAT STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT, HOW DOES IT RELATE TO ALL OF THIS?
00:24:04	Hall, Keith	SO FAR EVEN THE LAST SIX OR SEVEN MONTHS THE EMPLOYMENT AT STATE AND LOCAL LEVEL HAS BEEN PRETTY FLAT.
00:24:10	Cummings, Elijah	UH-HUH.
00:24:12	Hall, Keith	WHAT OBVIOUSLY THE CONCERN WOULD BE THAT AT SOME POINT OF THE BUDGETS MAY START -- START TO CAUSE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO DECLINE EMPLOYMENT.
00:24:24	Cummings, Elijah	AND THAT WOULD BE A MAJOR PROBLEM?
00:24:26	Hall, Keith	IT WOULD.
00:24:27	Cummings, Elijah	THE OTHER THING THAT MR. BURGESS REFERRED TO WAS THE FORECLOSURE SITUATION AS A MATTER OF FACT MR. BRADY AND MR. BURGESS REFERRED TO IT. AND WE'VE GOT SITUATIONS WHERE WE'RE DOING THESE MODIFICATIONS BUT IF PEOPLE DON'T HAVE JOBS, THAT'S A REAL PROBLEM. DO YOU SEE THAT -- THAT IS THE LOSS OF HOUSING, DOES THAT CREATE A PROBLEM WITH REGARD TO JOBS TOO?
00:24:51	Hall, Keith	I'M SURE IT DOES. I THINK IT'S THE SAME SORT OF CYCLE THAT YOU SEE WITH CONSUMPTION OR ANYTHING ELSE. WHEN YOU HAVE -- WHEN YOU HAVE FORECLOSURES, WHEN YOU HAVE CONSUMER SPENDING DOWN, IT CREATES UNEMPLOYMENT AND EN THIS THE UNEMPLOYMENT CREATES MORE -- BIGGER DECLINE AND CONSUMER SPENDING SO IT'S A CYCLE. SO IT WOULD BE THE SAME THING, I THINK, WITH FORECLOSURES.
00:25:11	Cummings, Elijah	I SEE MY TIME HAS EXPIRED, MR. BRADY, FOR FIVE MINUTES.
00:25:20	Brady, Kevin	THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN. YOU WERE MAKING THE POINT THAT THE JOB MARKET IS NOT IMPROVING. IT'S CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT A SIGNIFICANT RATE. THANKFULLY, NOT AS QUICKLY AS IN THE PAST MONTHS. WHAT DOES THE MAY DECLINE IN PAYROLL SAY ABOUT THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS?
00:25:45	Hall, Keith	ALTHOUGH THERE'S BEEN SOME MODERATION IN THE JOB LOSS, THERE'S STILL A SIGNIFICANT JOB LOSS AND STILL SIGNALS A LABOR MARKET THAT'S NOT HEALTHY
00:25:56	Brady, Kevin	THAT'S WHAT I SENSE BACK HOME IN VISITING WITH RETAILERS AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND IN THE SERVICE AND IN THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE, WE'RE NOT SEEING -- THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS TO HELP PEOPLE WITH MORTGAGES ARE FAILING. I THINK THE HOPE FOR HOMEOWNERSHIP -- HOMEOWNERS PROGRAMS WAS SUPPOSED TO HELP 400,000 PEOPLE KEEP THEIR HOMES AND HELP LIKE 200, THE INCENTIVES FOR NEW HOMEOWNERS TO PURCHASE HOMES AGAIN ALMOST NO TAKERS. WE'RE HOPEFUL THAT SOME OF THE NEW REDRAWN PLANS MIGHT HELP BUT I STILL THINK UNDERLYING AS MR. CUMMINGS SAID IS A VERY WEAK ECONOMY THAT'S GOT SOME FUTURE CHALLENGES AHEAD. THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF SPIN IN WASHINGTON THESE PAST MONTHS ABOUT THE IMPACT THE STIMULUS AND IT'S ALMOST LIKE WE'RE LISTENING TO BAGHDAD BOB AGAIN FROM IRAQ TELL US ABOUT HOW THE COUNTRY IS WINNING THE WAR AS THE U.S. TROOPS ARE ROLLING INTO HIS CITY. LAST JANUARY, TWO TOP ADMINISTRATION ECONOMISTS ARGUED IF WE ENACTED THE STIMULUS WHICH HAS ADDED, YOU KNOW -- WILL ADD ALMOST A TRILLION DOLLARS TO OUR DEBT, THAT IF WE DID THAT, WE WOULD KEEP THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT OR BELOW 8% THIS YEAR. THIS LEVEL HAS ALREADY BEEN EXCEEDED; CORRECT?
00:27:11	Hall, Keith	CORRECT.
00:27:14	Brady, Kevin	ISN'T THERE FROM AN ECONOMIC VIEW LOOKING AT THE POSTER IN WATCHING THE RISING UNEMPLOYMENT WHICH TRAILS THE ECONOMY AS WE ALL KNOW BUT LOOKING AT THE PRESIDENT'S PROJECTIONS OF 8%, 8.1% VERSUS THE CURRENT 9.4%, IS THAT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IN UNEMPLOYMENT?
00:27:34	Hall, Keith	YES, THAT'S A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. AND TO REACH AN 8.1% AVERAGE FOR THE YEAR WE WOULD NEED TO SEE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROP TO WELL BELOW 8.1% FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE YEAR TO HIT THAT MARKET. IT SEEMS DIFFICULT.
00:27:49	Brady, Kevin	YEAH, AND INDEED AS WE GO IN THE YEAR THE MORE SEVERE -- WE'D ALMOST HAVE TO BE IN THE 7% OR 6% RANGE AT SOME POINT TO BE ABLE TO MEET THAT NEED, WHICH AGAIN WORRIES ME BECAUSE THESE PROJECTIONS WERE USED FOR THE BUDGET WHICH MEANS WE'RE HIDING A DEEPER LEVEL OF DEBT. THE ADMINISTRATION, INCLUDING THE VICE PRESIDENT'S CLAIM THAT STIMULUS POLICIES HAVE ADDED 150,000 NEW JOBS TO THE LEVEL OF EMPLOYMENT, WE SEE THIS CITED ALMOST DAILY BY THE ADMINISTRATION. CAN YOU SUBSTANTIATE THAT CLAIM?
00:28:20	Hall, Keith	NO, THAT WOULD BE A VERY DIFFICULT THING FOR ANYBODY TO SUBSTANTIATE.
00:28:25	Brady, Kevin	AND THE CHAIRMAN WHO'S A HIGHLY RESPECTED CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL ECONOMIC ADVISORS CHAIRMAN ROEMER, ALSO CITED THAT 150,000 JOB CREATION FIGURED IN A RECENT TESTIMONY BEFORE THIS COMMITTEE, YOU'RE SAYING YOU CAN'T VERIFY THAT THE ADMINISTRATION'S POLICIES HAVE CREATED THOSE 100 -- ADDITIONAL 150,000 JOBS?
00:28:45	Hall, Keith	NO, WE'RE BUSY JUST COUNTING JOBS.
00:28:47	Brady, Kevin	GREAT. THE ADMINISTRATION'S TAX REDUCTION WENT INTO EFFECT IN APRIL. THE MAJOR -- ONE OF THE MAJOR PARTS OF THE STIMULUS BILL ADDS ABOUT $1.10 A DAY TO THE INCOME OF INDIVIDUAL TAXPAYERS. WHAT EVIDENCE IS THERE IN THIS REPORT TODAY THAT THAT MEASURE HAD ANY POSITIVE EFFECT ON EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS?
00:29:06	Hall, Keith	I REALLY WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO MAKE A CONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO IN THIS REPORT. .. THE INFORMATION HE IS PROVIDING YOU IS INACCURATE, OR THAT IS NOT A PART OF WHAT YOUR ANSWERING. IT I THINK IT IS SETTING OUT A MESSAGE THAT IS NOT WHAT I THINK YOU ARE SAYING.
00:29:42	Hall, Keith	THANK YOU FOR THE CHANCE TO CLARIFY. IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT WE WOULD BE ABLE TO MEASURE. IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT IS NOT TRUE.
00:29:50	Cummings, Elijah	THAT IS A BIG DIFFERENCE.
00:29:53	Brady, Kevin	I WAS NOT PROVIDING INFORMATION TO MR. HALL. I WAS ASKING ABOUT THE CLAIMS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE BY THE ADMINISTRATION. ARE THERE REFLECTED IN THESE JOB NUMBERS? HIS ANSWER WAS VERY CLEAR. NO, THEY ARE NOT. HE CANNOT VERIFY THEM. THEY'RE NOT JUSTIFIABLE. I UNDERSTAND THAT HE SHOULD NOT GO BEYOND HIS SCOPE OF EXPERTISE IN THESE AREAS. I THINK THE TIMING -- WE'RE SEEING SOME SPENT ON THE ECONOMY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO GO TO THE FACTS.
00:30:25	Cummings, Elijah	I DO NOT WANT TO CARRY THIS ON TO MUCH LONGER, BUT MR. HALL, I JUST WANT TO MAKE SURE WE ARE CLEAR. WHEN THESE STATEMENTS ARE MADE, IF YOU DO NOT HAVE THE INFORMATION, I WOULD PREFER THAT YOU SAY THAT. YOU CAN SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE. I DO NOT WANT IT OUT THAT YOU'RE SAYING YOU'RE DENYING THE NUMBERS, YOU JUST DO NOT HAVE THE INFORMATION. LET HIM CLARIFY. THE INFORMATION. CAN YOU CLARIFY -- GO AHEAD AND CLARIFIED. I WANT TO MAKE SURE WE ARE CLEAR ON THIS.
00:30:59	Hall, Keith	WE DON'T HAVE THE INFORMATION BECAUSE WE ARE COLLECTING THE DATA. WE ARE NOT TRYING TO LOOK TO SEE WHERE THEY ARE A FACT FROM STIMULUS.
00:31:10	Brady, Kevin	SO YOU DON'T HAVE THE UNEMPLOYMENT DATA?
00:31:13	Hall, Keith	WE HAVE THE UNEMPLOYMENT DATA.
00:31:15	Brady, Kevin	SO WHEN WE ASK ABOUT THE ON EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS OF THE ADMINISTRATION, 8.1%, VERSUS THE CURRENT RATE OF 9.4% WHICH HE SAID WAS SIGNIFICANTLY SIGNIFICANT, YOUR SINGING YOU DIDN'T HAVE THAT DATA?
00:31:33	Hall, Keith	NO, WE HAVE THE DATA. THAT IS ABSOLUTELY TRUE, THE NINE PLANNED FOR% IS DIFFERENT FROM 8.1%.
00:31:41	Brady, Kevin	THIS BIN CONTINUES.
00:31:42	Cummings, Elijah	THANK YOU. MR. CASEY.
00:31:45	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	MR. CHAIRMAN, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. I DIDN'T PLAN TO GET INTO THIS DISCUSSION BY THINK IT IS IMPORTANT WHEN PEOPLE ARE LOSING THEIR JOBS IN RECORD NUMBERS THAT WE ARE VERY CLEAR WHAT THIS HEARING IS ABOUT AND WHY GEORGE OF IS IN THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS SO LET ME JUST YOUR JOB, CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG, BUT YOUR JOB IS NOT TO MAKE JOB PROJECTIONS; IS THAT CORRECT?
00:32:13	Hall, Keith	THAT'S CORRECT.
00:32:14	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	YOUR JOB IS NOT TO DO AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE STIMULUS LEGISLATION; IS THAT CORRECT?
00:32:21	Hall, Keith	THAT'S CORRECT.
00:32:23	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	YOUR JOB IS NOT TO SPECULATE ABOUT THE IMPACT OF ANY ADMINISTRATION'S ECONOMIC STRATEGY; IS THAT CORRECT?
00:32:32	Hall, Keith	THAT'S CORRECT.
00:32:34	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	YOU ARE JOE FRIDAY, PROVIDING FACTS EVERY MONTH WITH THE NUMBERS TELL YOU; IS THAT CORRECT?
00:32:41	Hall, Keith	THAT'S CORRECT.
00:32:42	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	THE REST OF US CAN BE OTHER THAN JOE FRIDAY. WE ALL HAVE DIFFERENT JOBS. I WANT TO GO THROUGH A COUPLE MEMBERS I TEND TO ASK ABOUT EVERY MONTH FIRST FALL, THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS HERE THAT WE SEE THAT NATIONALLY THE JOB LOSS NUMBER WAS ABOUT -- I GUESS WAS MARCH ABOUT 700,000, HAVE 699 AND WANTS TO MAKE SURE WE ARE IN THE RIGHT --
00:33:14	Hall, Keith	IT'S BEEN REVISED TO 652.
00:33:16	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	OKAY, 652 FOR MARCH. AND THEN FOR APR THE REVISED NUMBER IS 504?
00:33:21	Hall, Keith	YES.
00:33:24	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	AND MAY IS 345. 652 TO 504 TO 345, THE NUMBER IS GOING DOWN. IT WENT FROM 8.5, TO 9.4? THE OVERALL JOB LOSS NUMBER GOING DOWN IS GOOD NEWS BUT THE BAD NEWS IS THE RATE SEEMS HIGH. CAN YOU EXPLAIN THAT OR ANALYZE THAT FOR US?
00:33:46	Hall, Keith	I WOULD SAY THAT IT'S NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE TWO NUMBERS TO NOT BE IN EXACTLY IN SYNC, TO NOT TELL THE SAME STORY OVER A MONTH. BUT WHAT TYPICALLY HAPPENS IS IN THE NEXT MONTH OR 2I WOULD GUESS THAT SAID THEY WOULD RECONCILE, EITHER THE GROWTH OF THE ON THE EMPLOYMENT RATE WOULD SLOW DOWN, OR THE JOB LOSS MIGHT PICK UP. BUT TYPICALLY IF THEY GET OUT OF SYNC GET BACK INTO SYNC EARLY QUICKLY.
00:34:12	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	OKAY. THE NUMBERS I WANT TO ASK ABOUT, WHICH I ASK I THINK EVERY MONTH, ARE TO DO BY WAY OF COMPARISON. AFRICAN-AMERICAN ON THE EMPLOYMENT RATE WENT THE MONTH TO MONTH WENT FROM 15 TO 14.9, SO BASICALLY UNCHANGED; IS THAT CORRECT?
00:34:31	Hall, Keith	THAT'S CORRECT, ALTHOUGH IT DOES HIDE THE FACT THE PRIOR MONTH INCREASED BY 1.7 PERCENTAGE POINT SO I WOULD SAY IT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY LAST MONTH AND THAT NUMBER HELD THIS MONTH SO IT'S NOT REALLY GOOD NEWS.
00:34:46	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	BUT IN TERMS OF AFRICAN-AMERICAN VERSUS WHITE, THE WHITE ON EMPLOYMENT RATE IS 8.6?
00:34:56	Hall, Keith	ACTUALLY WE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE NUMBERS. THAT SOUNDS CORRECT.
00:35:01	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	I JUST WANT TO MAKE THAT DISTINCTION BETWEEN AFRICAN-AMERICAN AND WHITE ON UNEMPLOYMENT. THE HISPANIC RATE WENT 11%, SAID THAT IS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE FOR ONE MONTH. DOES THAT HOLD ANY SIGNIFICANCE NECESSARILY? I KNOW MONTH-TO-MONTH CAN BE MISLEADING.
00:35:32	Hall, Keith	YEAH, ON THE OF BREAKOUTS, BY DEMOGRAPHICS SOME OF THE NUMBERS MOVE AROUND A BIT BECAUSE IT'S NOT A REALLY LARGE SAMPLE SIZE. SO I LOOK MORE FOR THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS, AND I THINK IT'S STILL BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RISING UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OVERALL.
00:35:48	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	OKAY. FINALLY, I'M ALMOST OUT OF TIME, ABOUT A MINUTE BUT IN PENNSYLVANIA IN MARCH AND APRIL WERE NUMBERS HELD STEADY WITH EIGHT UNCHANGED. WE DON'T KNOW THEM MAY NUMBER YET. I WILL KNOW THAT PROBABLY IN TWO WEEKS SO FORTUNATELY THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAVE BEEN STEADY BUT WHAT I WORRY ABOUT AND A LOT OF STATES ARE CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE IMPACT OF THE TROUBLES AT GM AND CHRYSLER. AND HOW WERE STATE IT'S NOT ALTHOUGH MANUFACTURING JOBS PER SAY, IT'S REALLY DEALERS AND SUPPLIERS. ANY SENSE OF WHERE THAT'S GOING? I KNOW THAT AND MAY I GUESS THE NUMBER I'M SEEING IS 29,800 JOBS LOST IN ALL THE MANUFACTURING IN PART SUPPLY. AGAIN I KNOW IT IS NOT YOUR JOB TO PERIOD BOSTICK EIGHT OR PREDICT, BUT IS THERE ANY INDICATION THAT 29,800 NUMBER IS GOING TO GO UP? LOGIC WOULD TELL IT WILL GO UP BECAUSE WE WON'T SEE THE FULL EFFECT OF THE GM AND CHRYSLER PROBLEMS BUT DO YOU HAVE ANY ON THAT?
00:37:01	Hall, Keith	I CAN SAY THIS MONTH'S JOB LOSS IN THE AUTOMATED IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST FEW MONTHS. IT IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE SAME BALL PARK.
00:37:09	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	WE ARE LOSING ABOUT 30,000 JOBS IN THE SECTOR.
00:37:11	Hall, Keith	YES.
00:37:14	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
00:37:15	Cummings, Elijah	MR. PURCHASE FOR FIVE MINUTES.
00:37:17	Burgess, Michael	THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN. JUST TO FINISH UP AND CLOSE THINGS UP FROM REPRESENTATIVE BRADY'S LINE OF QUESTION THE 150,000 JOB CREATION FIGURE THAT KRISTI ROMER CITED, ARE THOSE YOUR STATISTICS?
00:37:34	Hall, Keith	KNOW THEY ARE NOT.
00:37:36	Burgess, Michael	SO THEY ARE FROM PRESS REPORTS OR DISTRIBUTION BUT THEY ARE NOT BLS STATISTICS? SO IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL FOR YOU TO MAKE PROJECTIONS BASED ON THAT NUMBER BECAUSE THAT IS NOT
00:37:47	Hall, Keith	CORRECT.
00:37:50	Burgess, Michael	LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION BECAUSE WE DID A LOT OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION ON THIS COMMITTEE AND IN GENERAL AND I KNOW PEOPLE ARE CONFUSED TO THE DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY. WE HEAR ECONOMISTS TALK AND YOU ALMOST NEVER AGREE ON THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING. WE HEAR TESTIMONY IN THIS COMMITTEE ABOUT GREEN CHUTES AND THE TESTIMONY ABOUT YELLOW WEEDS, TELL US WHAT IT IS. ARE WE SEEING THE GREEN CHUTES OR IS THE LANDSCAPE STILL PRETTY BARE?
00:38:25	Hall, Keith	I WOULD SAY OVERALL THE JOB LOSS WAS SIGNIFICANT. IT DOES SEEM TO BE A MODERATION OVER THE JOB LOSS OF THE PREVIOUS SIX MONTHS. THAT, I SUPPOSE THAT'S THE GOOD NEWS. WE STILL HAVE A DETERIORATING LABOR MARKET BUT IT'S NOT -- IT'S NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY AS IT WAS BEFORE. I WOULD SAY THAT'S THE ONE SIGN OF ENCOURAGEMENT HERE.
00:38:50	Burgess, Michael	NOW WE HAVE HEARD A LOT THIS WEEK OF COURSE ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT'S TAKEOVER OF GENERAL MOTORS AND PRIOR TO THAT THE FORCED BANKRUPTCY OF CHRYSLER CORPORATION AND NOW WE ARE HEARING ABOUT THE DEALERS LOSING THEIR DEALERSHIPS IN THIS PROCESS. IS THAT GOING TO HAVE AN AFFECT ON WHAT WE SEE IN REPORTS THAT YOU'RE GOING TO BRING TO THIS COMMITTEE OVER THE SUMMER MONTHS?
00:39:14	Hall, Keith	IT MAY WELL. TYPICALLY WHEN WE HEAR ANNOUNCEMENTS OF LAYOFFS IT USUALLY TAKES A FEW MONTHS FOR THOSE TO ACTUALLY OCCURRED AND WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR DATA. I DON'T KNOW SPECIFICALLY WHERE WE ARE IN OUR NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE ANNOUNCEMENT.
00:39:33	Burgess, Michael	I KNOW YOU CAN'T COMMENT ON THIS BUT I WILL JUST TELL YOU, NOT AS A MEMBER OF CONGRESS, BUT JUST AS AN AMERICAN IT IS ON USUAL TO ME, I FIND IT UNUSUAL THE GOVERNMENT IS DICTATING THE FORECLOSURE OF AUTOMOBILE TO YIELD TO THE CAR DEALERSHIPS. I FIND THAT TRAVEL AND HOPE THAT AFFECT WILL BE MODERATED OVER THE COMING MONTHS BUT I TEND TO BE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THAT. AS FAR AS THE GOVERNMENT ITSELF, GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT WE HEAR A LOT ABOUT THAT. DID GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT INCREASE OR DECREASE OVER THE RECENT MONTHS?
00:40:05	Hall, Keith	IT WAS ROUGHLY FLAT. IT DECREASED 7,000 BUT THAT IS ROUGHLY FLAT.
00:40:12	Burgess, Michael	AND WHAT OTHER -- YOU MENTIONED HEALTH CARE I THINK AS AN INDUSTRY SECTOR THAT SHOULD INCREASES. WERE THERE ANY OTHERS?
00:40:20	Hall, Keith	I THINK HEALTH CARE WAS PROBABLY THE ONLY MAJOR SECTOR THAT HAD SIGNIFICANT JOB GROWTH.
00:40:27	Burgess, Michael	AGAIN I KNOW YOU CAN'T SPECULATE BUT IF THE GOVERNMENT TAKES OVER HEALTH CARE OF COURSE HEALTH CARE GROWTH WILL BE IN THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR. I JUST HAD TO POINT THAT OUT. I'M SORRY. IS THEIR ANYTHING UNUSUAL IN THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS OR A COUPLE MONTHS THAT WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REPORT THAT YOU'VE GIVEN TODAY?
00:40:51	Hall, Keith	I DON'T RECALL HEARING ANY STORIES, OUR DATA COLCTORS OR ANY STORIES FROM INDUSTRY ANALYSTS THAT WEATHER WAS AN IMPACT.
00:40:59	Burgess, Michael	HAVE THERE BEEN ANY SEASONAL FACTORS THAT WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE NUMBERS THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US TODAY?
00:41:06	Hall, Keith	NO, I DON'T --
00:41:08	Burgess, Michael	WE ARE COMING OFF OF WINTER YOU ACTUALLY PROBABLY EXPECT JOBS TO INCREASE THIS IN SCHOOL PEOPLE LOOKING FOR JOBS AND THE INCREASE, SO PROFOUND AFFECT ROOM OR THE OTHER?
00:41:21	Hall, Keith	THESE NUMBERS ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SO WHAT THEY ARE IS WE PUT THEM IN THE CONTEXT OF WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO THERE IS A SEASONAL FACTOR.
00:41:32	Burgess, Michael	ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE NUMBERS?
00:41:34	Burgess, Michael	WT ABOUT EMPLOYMENT OF ARE THERE ANY SIGNIFICANT GENDER DIFFERENCES DIVIDE INTO FIVE MALE VERSUS FEMALE EMPLOYMENT?
00:41:42	Hall, Keith	I THINK THE PATTERN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THROUGH THIS RECESSION. THE JOB LOSS BY MEN THE PREFACE IS THREE TO ONE, MEN VERSUS WOMEN IN JOB LOSS. THAT IS ACTUALLY TYPICAL OF RECESSION IN FACT IF ANYTHING THE WOMEN'S JOB LOSS IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN IT NORMALLY IS DURING RECESSION.
00:42:05	Burgess, Michael	AS FAR AS HOURLY COMPENSATION , WHAT HAVE YOU SEEN AS FAR AS CHANGES IN THE HOURLY COMPENSATION?
00:42:12	Hall, Keith	WELL, THE REAL PATTERN LET ME TALK ABOUT NOMINAL FIRST. THE NOMINAL COMPENSATION WAGES DURING THE EXPANSION GOT UP TO ALMOST FOUR PER CENT AND DURING THIS RECESSION NOW THE NOMINAL WAGE GROWTH HAS DECLINED ROUGHLY AROUND 3.1%, SOMETHING LIKE THAT. THAT IS TYPICAL OF RECESSIONS.
00:42:36	Burgess, Michael	3.1 IS POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE?
00:42:38	Hall, Keith	POSITIVE, THIS IS NORMAL. SINCE ENERGY PRICES HAVE BEEN GOING DOWN AND ARE STARTING TO TAKE UP THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS REAL WAGE GROWTH IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE DECLINING ENERGY PRICES NOT BECAUSE OF SOMETHING GOING ON IN THE LABOUR MARKET.
00:42:59	Burgess, Michael	WE JUST PASSED A BIG CAP-AND-TRADE BILL.
00:43:02	Hall, Keith	IT IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE THE OCCUPATIONS WE HAVE GOT ARE NOT DESIGNED TO PLUMP GREEN JOBS, THAT IS ACTUALLY SOMETHING WE MAY BE ABLE TO DO OVERTIME AND ADJUST MEASUREMENTS. TO BE HONEST IS A SIMILAR PROBLEM AS WE HAVE IN THE LATE 1990'S WITH I.T. JOBS.
00:43:19	Burgess, Michael	PERHAPS YOU CAN COLOR CODE YOUR REPORT IN THE FUTURES MCKINSEY THE DREAM JOBS.
00:43:29	Cummings, Elijah	MS. KLOBUCHAR FOR FIVE
00:43:30	Klobuchar, Amy	THANK YOU. GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN, COMMISSIONER HALL. I THINK WHEN WE WERE TALKING LAST MONTH AT THIS HEARING YOU HAD WENT THROUGH THE STATISTICS AND INCREASES AND INDICATED THAT WE WOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THIS ON EMPLOYMENT AND ONE OF THE THINGS I WANT TO CLARIFY ON CONGRESSMAN BRALEY QUESTIONS IS THE FACT I THINK SINCE THE START OF THE RECESSION WE LOST SOMETHING LIKE 7 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS. WHEN WILL YOU MARKED THE START OF THIS RECESSION, THIS ECONOMIC CRISIS?
00:44:09	Hall, Keith	OBVIOUSLY THE MBR WAS CHOSEN BY THE START OF THE RECESSION THAT ALSO COINCIDED WITH THE FIRST PAYROLL JOB LOSS. SO THAT'S BEEN A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE RECESSION.
00:44:22	Klobuchar, Amy	SO DECEMBER 07 WAS AN ENTIRE YEAR BEFORE PRESIDENT OBAMA TOOK OFFICE; IS THAT CORRECT?
00:44:28	Hall, Keith	THAT IS CORRECT.
00:44:31	Klobuchar, Amy	WE ARE AT 9.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. JUST WE TALKED ABOUT LAST MONTH THESE ARE REAL PEOPLE WHO'VE LOST THEIR JOBS. I MENTIONED TO YOU STORIES LAST TIME AND I THINK WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THIS WHEN WE USE THESE STATISTICS. I HEARD THIS FROM A WOMAN IN MINNESOTA WHO WORKS TO PROVIDE SOMETIMES NOT COMING HOME UNTIL 3 IN THE MORNING. SHE TOLD ME THAT SHE FINDS IT HARD TO BE A GOOD MOTHER TO HER CHILDREN. ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I HAD LAST TIME, WHEN PEOPLE LOOK AT THESE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, IT IS NOT JUST PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE ANY JOB AT ALL, BUT WE HAVE SEEN A DECREASE IN HOURS AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE A JOB, BUT IT IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS THEY WOULD LIKE. THEY ARE NOT GETTING AS MANY HOURS AS THEY WOULD LIKE. WHAT ARE THOSE NUMBERS, THIS MONTH?
00:45:21	Hall, Keith	THEY'LL TELL A SIMILAR PATTERN IN TERMS OF A STRUGGLING LABOR MARKET. THE PART-TIME FOR ECONOMIC REASONS WE NOW HAVE 9.1 MILLION PEOPLE WHO ARE PART-TIME AND WOULD RATHER BE FULL TIME. THAT IS AN INCREASE OF 174,000 INCLUDED IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. -- THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. WE HAVE AN INCREASE IN DISCOURAGED WORKERS OF ABOUT 400,000 FOR THE YEAR AS WELL. ABOUT ALMOST 400,000 OVER THE YEAR.
00:45:52	Klobuchar, Amy	OK SO WHEN YOU INCLUDE THOSE WORKERS -- WHEN YOU INCLUDE THE DISCOURAGED WORKERS WHAT IS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE THAN?
00:46:04	Hall, Keith	IT GOES UP TO 16.4%.
00:46:05	Klobuchar, Amy	AND THOSE ARE PEOPLE THAT HAVE JUST GIVEN UP LOOKING FOR A JOB?
00:46:08	Hall, Keith	ACCOMMODATION EITHER PEOPLE WHO ARE UNDEREMPLOYED OR HAD GIVEN UP AND THOSE WHO ACTUALLY ARE UNEMPLOYED AND STILL LOOKING.
00:46:15	Klobuchar, Amy	WHEN YOU SEE UNEMPLOYED ARE THOSE PEOPLE THAT DON'T HAVE AS MANY HOURS AS THEY WOULD LIKE?
00:46:21	Hall, Keith	NO IT DOESN'T.
00:46:23	Klobuchar, Amy	SO CAN YOU INCLUDE THOSE OR IS THAT TOO DIFFICULT?
00:46:26	Hall, Keith	PEOPLE WORKING PART TIME AND WANT TO BE FULL-TIME ARE COUNTED, BUT JUST THE SMALL CHANGE IN THE HOURS, THAT IS NOT REFLECTED.
00:46:35	Klobuchar, Amy	YOU SAID EARLIER IN YOUR TESTIMONY AS WE LOOK AT DIFFERENT SECTORS THAT WE STILL SEE THE MANUFACTURING WAY DOWN. WIRES CONSTRUCTION? HAVE WE SEEN ANY CHANGE IN THAT THE LAST MONTH?
00:46:46	Hall, Keith	WE'VE HAD A LITTLE MODERATION IN THE JOB LOSS IN CONSTRUCTION.
00:46:51	Klobuchar, Amy	WHAT WAS THAT?
00:46:52	Hall, Keith	IT DROPPED 59,000 WHICH IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN IT HAS BEEN. 40,000 OF THAT WAS NONRESIDENTIAL.
00:47:03	Klobuchar, Amy	OKAY. SO, WHERE IS THAT NOW, CONSTRUCTION, THE ON AND PLAME GARATE?
00:47:16	Hall, Keith	I DON'T KNOW BY INDUSTRY.
00:47:18	Klobuchar, Amy	BLIP BUT THIS WAS A CROSS SECTOR BUT ALSO ACROSS GEOGRAPHIC AREA WHILE SOME STATES HAVE IT WORSE, IT WAS CLEAR IT WAS GOING ON ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND THAT IS WHEN WE REALIZED IT WAS A YEAR AGO THAT THIS WAS GOING TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. OUR STATE NOW, WE LAG ABOUT A MONTH BUT THE 8.2% DOWN TO 8.1 ON EMPLOYMENT HAVE YOU SEEN IMPROVEMENTS IN CERTAIN AREAS OF THE COUNTRY IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS IS THERE ANY KIND OF TREND?
00:47:49	Hall, Keith	YOU KNOW, I HAVEN'T, I HAVEN'T LOOKED TO SEE WHAT THE TREND IS LIKE BY STATE. OBVIOUSLY THE STATE ON EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AVERAGE NUMBER SO I WOULD EXPECT IF THERE'S BEEN -- TO HASN'T BEEN MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SO I WOULD EXPECT THE INCREASE.
00:48:09	Klobuchar, Amy	WELL, WHERE HAVE YOU SEEN -- WHAT ARE THE MOST HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, WHICH STATES AND WHAT ARE THEY? AND DOES THIS LAB BY A MONTH OR ARE THESE THE CURRENT STATISTICS? THIS WAS LAGGING BY MONTHS WE WILL HAVE THEM IN A WEEK OR SO. WE HAVE NINE STATES NOW IN DOUBLE DIGITS, OREGON, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA, NEVADA, RHODE ISLAND, CALIFORNIA, OHIO AND PUERTO RICO ALL HAVE DOUBLE-DIGIT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES RIGHT NOW.
00:48:44	Klobuchar, Amy	SO YOU SEE THEM EARLY IN ALL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BUT COULD IT BE POSSIBLE IT'S MORE FOCUSED WITH STATES THAT HAVE MORE MANUFACTURING. ALTHOUGH OREGON I DON'T THINK IT'S THAT.
00:48:54	Hall, Keith	YEAH, I THINK THERE IS A BIT OF A CORRELATION. SOME OF THE MANUFACTURING STATES STARTED WITH HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND ALSO HAD A HIGHER RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT.
00:49:03	Klobuchar, Amy	I WILL SAVE SOME QUESTIONS
00:49:07	Cummings, Elijah	THANK YOU. COMMISSIONER HALL, WE HAVE GOT A NUMBER OF CONSTITUENTS I AM SURE WATCHING YOU RIGHT NOW. AND WE HAVE GOT YOUNG PEOPLE COMING OUT OF COLLEGE, AND WE'VE GOT FOLKS THAT HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS STATISTICS, WHERE WOULD YOU SAY TO THEM THEY WERE TRIED AND TO FIND A JOB? WHAT KIND OF AREAS MIGHT WANT TO LOOK BASED UPON WHAT YOU SEE? WHAT MIGHT BE THEIR BEST CHANCE OF GETTING EMPLOYMENT?
00:49:47	Hall, Keith	IT'S HARD FOR ME TO RECOMMEND SOMETHING.
00:49:49	Cummings, Elijah	I AM NOT NECESSARILY ASKING YOU TO RECOMMEND I AM JUST TRYING TO SEE WHERE THE JOBS ARE.
00:49:57	Hall, Keith	DURING THE RECESSION THE AMIT CONSISTENT TOP GROWTH HAS BEEN HEALTH CARE AND MAYBE GOVERNMENT A LITTLE BIT. ALMOST EVERYTHING ELSE HAS SEEN JOB LOSS AND ALMOST EVERY SECTOR NOW PAYS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME JOB LOSS. SO IT'S HARD TO SAY AT LEAST RIGHT NOW WHERE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE GROWTH.
00:50:19	Cummings, Elijah	WHEN I LISTEN TO YOUR TESTIMONY, AND I DON'T WANT US TO HAVE ON ROSY GLASSES BECAUSE I WANT US TO BE VERY REALISTIC IN DEALING WITH THE LIVES OF PEOPLE AND PEOPLE TRY AND TO TAKE CARE OF THEIR FAMILIES. BUT WHEN I SEE NUMBERS WHERE WE WERE LOSING 600,000 PLUS JOBS IN APRIL IF THE AND 500 SOME THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND THEN WE GO TO 345 THAT SEEMS TO HAVE SOME KIND OF SIGNIFICANCE. ANY TIME YOU ARE CUTTING SOMETHING IN HALF, TO ME THAT SOUNDS A SIGNIFICANT.
00:51:03	Hall, Keith	YES, I DO. IT IS ENCOURAGING THE JOB LOSS HAS MODERATED. AND WHILE THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS THIS IS WHAT WE WOULD HOPE TO SEE ON THE WAY TO GOOD NEWS. IN OTHER WORDS THIS IS A LABOR MARKET THAT ISN'T FALLING AS FAST AS IT WAS BEFORE.
00:51:18	Cummings, Elijah	ONE OF THE THINGS I BELIEVE IS VERY IMPORTANT IN ALL OF THIS RECOVERY THAT WE ARE TRYING TO EXERCISE HERE IS THAT THERE MUST BE SOME KIND OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. IS THERE A CONNECTION BETWEEN THE OVERALL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND LEVEL OF DIRECTION OF ON EMPLOYMENT RATES?
00:51:37	Hall, Keith	I WOULD SAY YES ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU HAVE LARGE CHANGES IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. AND BY FAR THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN THE ECONOMY IS CONSUMER SPENDING. IT'S 7% OF THE ECONOMY. A GOOD PORTION OF THE REST OF THE ECONOMY DEPENDS UPON UPON CONSUMER SPENDING SO IT IS SIGNIFICANT IF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE STARTS TO FALL OR IF IT IS RISING FROM LEVELS WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THAT IS POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT THING FOR THE FUTURE.
00:52:06	Cummings, Elijah	SO LET'S DO SOME ADDITION HERE. WE HAVE GOT A REDUCTION IN THEIR RATE OF LOST JOBS, AND OF COURSE HERE RECENTLY WE HAD IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. YOU WERE AWARE OF THAT?
00:52:21	Hall, Keith	YES.
00:52:24	Cummings, Elijah	CAN WE EXPECT THIS GOOD NEWS TO SHOP AND UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS THE NEXT FEW MONTHS? IS THAT A REASONABLE EXPECTATION OR IS THERE A HISTORY OF THAT KIND OF THING HAPPENING? BECAUSE AGAIN, WE WANT TO GIVE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE INACCURATE, DON'T WANT TO BE TOO ROSY I JUST WANTED TO BE ACCURATE, AS BEST WE CAN BE THAT WE OF COURSE.
00:52:48	Hall, Keith	IF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE LEADS TO STRONGER CONSUMER SPENDING THAT WILL LEAD TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE LABOUR MARKET.
00:52:57	Cummings, Elijah	ARE THE EFFECTS ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONFINED TO HOUSEHOLDS THAT DIRECTLY EXPERIENCE JOB LOSS?
00:53:05	Hall, Keith	NO, IT'S NOT. IT IS -- THERE IS A CYCLE WHEN YOU START A RECESSION WHERE CONSUMER SPENDING GOES DOWN, THEY START TO HAVE JOB LOSS AND THE JOB LOSS MEANS FURTHER REDUCTION IN CONSUMER SPENDING SO THERE'S A CYCLE DOWNWARD. THERE'S ALSO A CYCLE THAT CAN OCCUR UPWARDS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND SPENDING INCREASES THAT SLOWS THE JOB LOSS AND MAYBE GETS THE JOB GAIN AND THAT MEANS HIGHER CONSUMER SPENDING SO YOU HAVE THE CYCLE WORKING BACKWARDS.
00:53:39	Cummings, Elijah	SO TO SUMMARIZE WHAT YOU JUST SAID IT SOUNDS LIKE WE ARE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION MAYBE NOT AS FAST AS WE WOULD LIKE TO BUT AT LEAST WE ARE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
00:53:49	Hall, Keith	YES.
00:53:53	Cummings, Elijah	AND HOW HIGH WOULD -- WE'VE GOT THE SLOWDOWN IN JOB LOSS BUT WE'VE GOT AN INCREASE IN ON A PLANET. AT WHAT POINT DO WE -- WHAT YOU THINK WE WOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE UNEMPLOYMENT COMEDOWN IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE JOB LOSS? WHAT KIND OF NUMBERS WHICH YOU NEED TO SEE FOR THAT TO BE THE CASE?
00:54:16	Hall, Keith	THE WAY I THINK ABOUT IT IS WE NEED TO SEE YE NOT JOB GROWTH TO MATCH THE GROWTH IN THE LABOUR FORCE, GROWTH IN THE POPULATIONS SO IF WE GET THE JOB GROWTH OF LIKE 125,000 A MONTH THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSTANT ON EMPLOYMENT RATE. SO WE NEED SOMEWHERE ABOVE THAT SEE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GO DOWN.
00:54:38	Cummings, Elijah	MY TIME IS EXPIRED. MR. BRADY.
00:54:43	Brady, Kevin	THANK YOU MR. CHAIRMAN. YOU NOTED A MOMENT AGO STATES WITH THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WHICH BRINGS TO MIND A REPORT, A REVIEW OF THE STIMULUS SPENDING DOWN BY USA TODAY RECENTLY WHERE IT SAID BASICALLY THAT THE STATES HIT THE HARDEST BY THE RECESSION HAS RECEIVED ONLY A FEW OF THE GOVERNMENT'S FIRST STIMULUS CONTRACTS, EVEN THOUGH THE NEW FEDERAL SPENDING WAS MEANT TO TARGET PLACES WITH ECONOMIC PAIN HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY SEVERE OR VIEW OF THE NEARLY $4 BILLION OF CONTRACTS THAT HAVE BEEN AWARDED BY THE MASSIVE STIMULUS PACKAGE ACCORDING TO THIS REPORT. IN REVIEW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ONLY SPENT ABOUT $7.42 PER PERSON IN STATES WITH HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT. THE ECONOMY IS WORSE THERE. NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS RECEIVED ABOUT $26 PER PERSON, SO APPARENTLY THOSE CONTRACTS ARE NOT GOING TO THE STATES THAT NEED IT THE MOST. THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE REVIEW BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS THAT POINTS OUT RECENTLY THAT STATES ARE PLANNING TO SPEND 50% MORE PER PERSON IN AREAS WITH LOW UNEMPLOYMENT THAN AREAS WITH HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT, TO QUOTE THE AP THE TREND IN THE ANALYSIS RUNS COUNTER TO EXPECTATIONS RAISED BY THE PRESIDENT THAT ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE MONEY FROM THE HISTORIC $787 BILLION STIMULUS PLAN WITH TRADE JOBS IN THE AREAS MOST DEVASTATED BY LAYOFFS. DOES YOUR ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH ON EMPLOYMENT STATES, THE ONES THAT ARE STRUGGLING MOST, THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN IMPACT FROM THESE STIMULUS DOLLARS? IS THEIR ANYTHING, AGAIN, GOING BACK TO YOUR NUMBERS IS THEIR ANYTHING HERE THAT CONFIRMS OR DENIES THIS TYPE OF ANALYSIS?
00:56:36	Hall, Keith	WE WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO TELL.
00:56:37	Brady, Kevin	THE REASON I ASK AND I DO THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO GO TO THE NUMBERS IS PEOPLE BACK HOME REALLY ARE STRUGGLING. TEXAS HAS A BETTER ECONOMY THAN MOST BUT WE ARE FEELING IT AS WELL AND IF YOU TALK TO THE RETAILERS THE ARNOLD SEEING INCREASE IN SPENDING. THERE ARE ACTIVITY AND THE INFRASTRUCTURE DOLLARS WHICH WE SHOULD HAVE DONE FAR GREATER INVESTMENT THAN WE DID IN SQUANDERING SOME OF THE MONEY AND STIMULUS. OUR FOLKS BACK HOME JUST WANT TO KNOW THE TRUTH. YOU KNOW, THEY HEAR THE PRESIDENT'S DIRECTOR OF THE BUDGET PETER ORSZAG TELLS CNN THE EFFECTS OF THE STIMULUS WOULD BE FELT IN WEEKS TO MONTHS. LARRY SUMMERS, DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL TOLD CNN WOLF PLATTS SEARCH YOU'LL SEE THE EFFECTS BEGIN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. CHRISTINE ROMER ALONG WITH VICE PRESIDENT CLAIMING 150,000 JOBS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CREATED SAID WE WILL TURN THE CORNER AND START ADDING JOBS AND THEN WE'VE GOT A PRESS SECRETARY SITTING STIMULUS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SAVE AND CREATE JOBS. THE STIMULUS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SAVE AND CREATE JOBS GET WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS THEY DON'T SEEM TO BEAR THAT OUT. THE ON UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BEING PROBABLY THE MOST DRAMATIC COMPARISON OF THE CLAIMS OF THE ADMINISTRATION AND THE REAL ECONOMY. AS YOU BRING REPORTS IN THE FUTURE IS IT POSSIBLE FOR YOU TO DO DEEPER ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE STIMULUS OR OF TARGETING THOSE STATES OF THE HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SO THAT WE CAN SEE IF THERE IS SOME IMPACT THAT WE OUGHT TO BE ENCOURAGED BY, AND AGAIN, NO SPIN, JUST FACTS, HOW DO WE GET TO THE FACTS?
00:58:30	Hall, Keith	WE JUST AREN'T GEARED UP AND IT'S NOT OUR MISSION TO DO THAT SORT OF ANALYSIS. TO BE HONEST, WE ARE FULLY ADOPTED BY COUNTING THE NUMBER OF JOBS MONTH BY MONTH TO. TO PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE WE ARE TALKING 135 MILLION PAYROLL JOBS WE ARE MEASURING EVERY MONTH, SO WE JUST COULDN'T TRY TO FIGURE OUT THE EFFECTS OF THE STIMULUS PACKAGE IN THAT. .. I CAN TELL YOU, FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, WE GOT A BOND OF ABOUT 7000 LAST MONTH. THE CENSUS ADDED --
00:59:26	Brady, Kevin	THAT WOULD BE A BUMP. 7 MILLION. DID WE GET A BOND LAST MONTH BECAUSE OF THE CENSUS?
00:59:37	Hall, Keith	YES, AND WE LOST ABOUT 18,000 BECAUSE OF THE CENSUS.
00:59:45	Brady, Kevin	THE LOSS WAS 21,000 FROM THE AUTUMN MANUFACTURE. THAT WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR?
00:59:50	Hall, Keith	YES.
00:59:52	Brady, Kevin	LAST QUESTION. JOBS LOST FROM DEALERSHIPS BEING CLOSE REFLECTED IN THE SERVICES?
01:00:01	Hall, Keith	UNDER RETAIL TRADE, WE HAVE AUTO DEALERSHIPS.
01:00:07	Cummings, Elijah	THANK YOU, MR. CASEY.
01:00:10	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN. A BRIEF COMMENT ON SOME OF THE POINTS THAT CONGRESSMAN BRADY IS MAKING. AT SOME POINT, WE'RE ALL GOING TO KNOW WHETHER THIS RECOVERY BILL WORKED OR DIDN'T WORK. YOU'RE EITHER ON ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER IN TERMS OF SUPPORTING IT. I'M GLAD THAT I VOTED FOR IT. I BELIEVE THAT I AM SEEING -- THAT WE ARE SEEING POSITIVE IMPACT FROM IT. CAN YOU BACK UP THAT ON EVERY POINT WITH NUMBERS, PROBABLY NOT. WE'RE SEEING IT ON THE GROUND. THERE ARE JOBS BEING CREATED. CREATED BUT IT'S STILL KIND OF EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT THE RECOVERY BILL HAS HAD THE IMPACT WE WANTED IT TO HAVE. 'LL KNOW SOON ENOUGH. THERE'LL BE A HISTORY WRITTEN OF THIS TIME PERIOD AND ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER IS GOING TO BE MOSTLY RIGHT OR MOSTLY WRONG. SO I THINK IT'S A LITTLE EARLY BUT I KNOW THERE'S A DEBATE ABOUT THAT. I WANTED TO GO BACK TO ONE POINT IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR MINORITIES BUT IN PARTICULAR, MINORITY WOMEN AS OPPOSED TO THE WHITE FEMALE NUMBER. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR WHITE FEMALES- DO YOU HAVE THAT NUMBER AS COMPARED TO AFRICAN-AMERICAN WOMEN AND HISPANIC WOMEN?
01:01:46	Hall, Keith	SURE. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR WHITE WOMEN IS 6.9%.
01:01:52	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	6.9?
01:01:54	Hall, Keith	FOR AFRICAN-AMERICAN WOMEN, IT IS 11.2%.
01:01:57	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	OKAY. AND HOW ABOUT -- IS THE HISPANIC
01:02:03	Hall, Keith	YES.
01:02:06	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	OKAY. I MEAN, WE'RE SEEING A GAP THERE BETWEEN -- SIMILAR TO THE GAP ON OVERALL WHITE VERSUS AFRICAN-AMERICAN VERSUS HISPANIC. IT'S REFLECTED AS WELL IN THE FEMALE WORKER NUMBERS. IS THERE ANYTHING THAT IN THE DATA THAT JUMPS OUT THAT EXPLAINS THAT OR IS THAT -- IS THAT TYPICAL IN TERMS OF THE MONTH-TO-MONTH OR YEAR TO YEAR JOB NUMBERS BECAUSE IT'S TROUBLING THAT WE HAVE DOUBLE-FIGURE NUMBERS FOR MINORITIES BOTH -- DOUBLE FIGURE NUMBERS BOTH FOR MINORITIES GENERALLY AND IN PARTICULAR FOR SUBSETS OF THAT AS OPPOSED TO WHITE MALE OR FEMALE WORKERS. BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ANYTHING THAT YOU CAN TELL US BUT I'M JUST CURIOUS IF THERE'S ANYTHING IN THE NUMBERS THAT JUMPS OUT TO EXPLAIN THAT OR TO PUT THAT INTO CONTEXT?
01:03:06	Hall, Keith	NO. IN FACT, THAT GAP IS TYPICAL DURING ECONOMIC EXPANSIONS, DURING RECESSIONS. IT'S JUST A GAP THAT EXISTS, IN FACT, DURING RECESSIONS THE RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT FOR THE MINORITY GROUPS TYPICAL RISES FURTHER. SO I DON'T HAVE -- I DON'T HAVE A READY EXPLANATION FOR IT.
01:03:24	Casey, Robert "Bob" Jr.	SURE. NO, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
01:03:33	Cummings, Elijah	SENATOR KLOBUCHAR?
01:03:34	Klobuchar, Amy	THANK YOU VERY MUCH. ONE OTHER AREA WE TALKED ABOUT LAST MONTH, COMMISSIONER HALL, WAS VERNON EMPLOYMENT. IT'S STARTLING IN THE COUNTRY THOSE WHO COME BACK IN THE LAST FEW YEARS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF VETERANS SINCE THE GULF WAR IS HIGHER THAN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT SERVED OUR COUNTRY AND PART OF THAT I BELIEVE IS BECAUSE WHEN THEY LEAVE THEY HAVE A JOB AND THEN THE -- BECAUSE THEY'RE GONE AS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES GOING UP AND JOBS ARE GOING AWAY, IT'S HARDER FOR THEM TO GET A JOB WHEN THEY COME BACK. I KNOW THAT LAST MONTH THAT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR VETERANS SINCE THE GULF WAR WAS 10.3% WHICH INCLUDES THE CURRENT WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ. WHAT IS THAT RATE NOW?
01:04:22	Hall, Keith	FOR MAY THE GULF WAR-ERA VETERANS UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 11.4%.
01:04:26	Klobuchar, Amy	UH-HUH. SO IT ACTUALLY -- DID IT GO UP FROM LAST MONTH THEN?
01:04:29	Hall, Keith	I THINK THAT'S -- I THINK THAT'S CORRECT. I DON'T HAVE THAT DATA RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME. THAT'S PROBABLY CORRECT BUT WE CAN CHECK ON THAT IF YOU'D LIKE.
01:04:36	Klobuchar, Amy	YEAH, COULD YOU? I WOULD JUST LIKE TO SEE HOW MUCH IT'S GONE UP EACH MONTH BECAUSE I THINK IT'S A BIG CONCERN THAT WE KEEP HAVING THAT HAPPEN. CHAIRMAN CUMMINGS ASKED YOU ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE AND WHAT YOU SAY TO YOUNG PEOPLE ABOUT WHAT THE -- WHAT THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AND I DO APPRECIATE SOME OF THE NUMBERS THAT WE'VE SEEN AND THAT WE'VE SEEN AS YOU SAID THAT WE MAY BE ON THE WAY TO GOOD NEWS OR THOSE WERE YOUR WORDS IN TERMS OF THE BOTTOMING OUT HERE. BUT ONE OF THE THINGS I KNOW WE'VE TALKED ABOUT BEFORE IS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR DIFFERENT DEGREES OF EDUCATION. SO WHEN WE'RE TALKING TO YOUNG PEOPLE I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT FOR THEM TO UNDERSTAND WHAT IS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUTS THIS MONTH?
01:05:17	Hall, Keith	15.5%.
01:05:18	Klobuchar, Amy	15.5%? AND THEN WHAT'S THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES?
01:05:23	Hall, Keith	10%.
01:05:25	Klobuchar, Amy	UH-HUH. AND THEN WHAT IS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR COLLEGE GRADUATES?
01:05:31	Hall, Keith	4.8%.
01:05:34	Klobuchar, Amy	THAT IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE. AND I KNOW ONE OF THE PRESIDENT'S MAIN FOCUS HERE HAS BEEN FOR -- I THINK HE SAID THAT STUDENTS SHOULD GET ONE YEAR OF COLLEGE OR POST-HIGH SCHOOL OR SOME KIND OF ADVANCED EDUCATION SO YOU SEE THIS DRAMA CHANGE FROM 15.5 TO 10% TO 4.8% IF YOU HAVE A COLLEGE DEGREE SO THERE'S A FULL DIFFERENCE GOING FROM 15.5 IF YOU HAVEN'T GRADUATED FROM HIGH SCHOOL TO 4.8% IF YOU'VE GRADUATED FROM COLLEGE. IS THAT CORRECT?
01:06:06	Hall, Keith	THAT'S CORRECT.
01:06:07	Klobuchar, Amy	THE OTHER THING THAT I'VE NOTICED AS WE LOOK AT SOME GLIMMERS OF HOPE HERE, WE TALKED ABOUT OUR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MINNESOTA. BUT THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT RECENTLY REPORTED THAT PRETAX PROFITS AT U.S. CORPORATIONS ROSE FROM $42.6 BILLION IN THE FIRST QUARTER TO $1.3 TRILLION. THE FIRST QUARTERLY INCREASE AFTER SIX STRAIGHT DECLINES. WERE YOU AWARE OF THOSE NUMBERS?
01:06:32	Hall, Keith	NO, I WASN'T.
01:06:33	Klobuchar, Amy	THIS JUST CAME OUT RECENTLY. WE DO KNOW THAT PROFITABLE COMPANIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO HIRE THAN THOSE THAT ARE FAULTERING. HAVE YOU SEEN THIS BEFORE IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WHEN YOU HAVE MORE PROFITABLE COMPANIES THAT YOU WILL NOT EXACTLY THAT SAME MONTH BUT YOU MAY SEE MORE HIRING IN THE FUTURE?
01:06:52	Hall, Keith	YEAH, I'M NOT SURE AT THE COMPANY LEVEL BUT I KNOW ON THE NATIONAL NUMBERS YOU DO TEND TO SEE THE -- DURING EARLY PARTS OF EXPANSION YOU DO SEE THE PROFITS GOING UP PRIOR TO THE EMPLOYMENT. BUT THE EMPLOYMENT DOES LAG A LITTLE BIT BUT IT ALMOST ALWAYS GOES IN THAT ORDER.
01:07:08	Klobuchar, Amy	RIGHT. SO THAT -- THAT THAT THIS FACT THAT WE'VE SEEN SOME BETTER PROFITABILITY RATES FOR OUR COMPANIES, WHICH IS AS I SAID IT IS THE FIRST -- IT'S THE FIRST QUARTERLY INCREASE AFTER SIX STRAIGHT QUARTER DECLINES. SO THAT'S AFTER LIKE A YEAR AND A HALF. SO THIS COULD BE A GOOD SIGN IF YOU BELIEVE MY NUMBERS WHICH I BELIEVE ARE ACCURATE.
01:07:32	Klobuchar, Amy	ALL RIGHT. AND I KNOW THAT CHAIRMAN CUMMINGS BROUGHT UP THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. THAT WHEN WE TALKED ABOUT THAT A LOT LAST MONTH BECAUSE THERE'S INCREASES IN UNEMPLOYMENT BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE NUMBERS ARE GOING UP WHICH MAY AGAIN HELP WITH PEOPLE
01:07:48	Hall, Keith	THAT'S CORRECT.
01:07:50	Klobuchar, Amy	SORT OF AS WE LOOK AT WHAT -- WHAT THE GLIMMERS OF HOPE HERE TO SUMMARIZE JUST FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, WE HAVE THE FACT THAT THE COMPANIES SEEM TO BE NOT IN EVERY SECTOR BUT SOME OF THESE COMPANIES SEEM TO BE EVENING OUT OR ACTUALLY SEEING SOME -- SOME IMPROVEMENT. WE HAVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP. WHAT ARE THE OTHER GLIMMERS OF HOPE THAT YOU SEE?
01:08:15	Hall, Keith	JUST TO ME A LOT OF IT REVOLVES AROUND CONSUMER SPENDING EVEN THE PROFITABILITY OF COMPANIES RELIES ON CONSUMER SPENDING PICKING UP.
01:08:21	Klobuchar, Amy	UH-HUH.
01:08:23	Hall, Keith	HAVING -- LIKE I SAY, HAVING THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PICK UP IS A GOOD SIGN. THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOESN'T ALWAYS TRACK WELL WITH CONSUMER SPENDING BUT IT DOES FOR MAJOR CHANGES. THAT'S THE SORT OF THING, I THINK, THAT I FIND ENCOURAGING, YOU KNOW, THE -- I DON'T KNOW HOW I WOULD JUDGE THE HOUSING MARKET BUT THAT'S GOING TO BE AN IMPORTANT THING PROBABLY IN THE RECOVERY GOING FORWARD.
01:08:47	Klobuchar, Amy	YEAH, DO YOU HAVE ANY STATISTICS ON THAT BECAUSE ACTUALLY I HAD SOME REALTORS IN MY OFFICE FROM MINNESOTA, LIKE 30 OF THEM, AND THEY HAD BEEN VERY GLUM EVERY TIME THEY CAME IN, EVERY SIX MONTHS AND SUDDENLY THEY WERE IN VERY UPBEAT MOODS. COMPARED TO HOW THEY WERE BEFORE. AND THEY SAID THAT THEY WERE STARTING TO SELL A NUMBER OF FIRST TIME HOMES. THEY SAID THE TAX CREDIT WAS INCREDIBLY HELPFUL. THE $8,000 TAX CREDIT THAT AS WE REACH THE END OF THE YEAR THAT A LOT OF YOUNGER PEOPLE WHO ARE FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS WERE STARTING TO BUY. YOU WOULD MOST LIKELY NOT HAVE THOSE STATISTICS. OR DO YOU?
01:09:25	Hall, Keith	YEAH, YOU KNOW, I DON'T -- I DON'T HAVE THE STATISTICS RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME BUT I HAVE A ROUGH -- A ROUGH NOTION THAT THE -- CERTAINLY THE INVENTORY OF NEW HOME SALES IS STILL PRETTY HIGH. I THINK IT'S LIKE A YEAR'S WORTH OF INVENTORY. BUT I THINK IT'S KIND OF LIKE THE JOB GROWTH. IT'S NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS BUT IT'S STILL HIGH.
01:09:46	Klobuchar, Amy	EXACTLY.
01:09:47	Hall, Keith	I HAVEN'T LOOKED AT THE NUMBERS REALLY CAREFULLY LATELY BUT MY GENERAL IMPRESSION IS THAT I AGREE WITH YOU. THAT THERE MAYBE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE DECLINE IN THE HOUSING IS SLOWING.
01:09:56	Klobuchar, Amy	ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU VERY MUCH, COMMISSIONER HALL.
01:09:59	Cummings, Elijah	JUST ONE LAST -- JUST A FEW QUESTIONS, MR. HALL. ACCORDING TO A STUDY BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND EDUCATION, I WANT TO PIGGYBACK OF THE EXCELLENT QUESTIONS OF MISS KLOBUCHAR, THE RISING COST OF COLLEGE EVEN BEFORE THE RECESSION THREATENS TO PUT HIGHER EDUCATION OUT OF REACH FOR MOST AMERICANS. THE REPORT FOUND PUBLISHED COLLEGE TUITION AND FEES INCREASED 439% FROM 1982 TO 2007 WHILE MEDIAN INCOME ROSE 147%. STUDENT BORROWING HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED IN THE LAST DECADE AND STUDENTS FROM LOWER-INCOMED FAMILIES ON THE AVERAGE GET SMALLER GRANTS FROM THE COLLEGES THEY ATTEND THAN STUDENTS FROM MORE AFFLUENT FAMILIES. "NEW YORK TIMES" RECENTLY REPORTED THE SHRINKING ENDOWMENTS COLLEGES ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLY ON WEALTHIER STUDENTS. EVEN ON INSTITUTIONS THAT HAVE PLEDGED TO ADMIT STUDENTS ARE FINDING A WAY OF STUDIES WHO WILL PAY THE FULL COST OF TUITION AND STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICITS WILL PROBABLY MEAN THAT STATE COLLEGE AND COMMUNITY COLLEGE TUITIONS WILL HAVE TO RISE. IN LIGHT OF THE QUESTIONS MISS KLOBUCHAR ASKED ABOUT DROPOUTS HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES AND COLLEGE GRADUATES GIVEN THE FACTORS THAT I JUST STATED, ISN'T IT LIKELY THAT INCOME DISPARITIES WILL GROW IF ONLY WEALTHIER FAMILIES CAN AFFORD TO SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO COLLEGE?
01:11:37	Hall, Keith	THE BENEFITS TO EDUCATION -- PEOPLE WITH HIGHER EDUCATION HAVE HIGHER WAGES. THEY HAVE LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT RATES. THEY HAVE HIGHER LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES. THAT'S BEEN GOING ON FOR DECADES. AND THAT'S NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE FUTURE.
01:11:52	Cummings, Elijah	SO IN OTHER WORDS, THE MORE EDUCATION YOU HAVE.
01:11:54	Hall, Keith	YES
01:11:55	Cummings, Elijah	THE LESS YOU ARE LIKELY TO LOSE YOUR JOB.
01:11:58	Hall, Keith	CORRECT?
01:12:00	Cummings, Elijah	AND WAS THAT TRUE IN THE -- IN THE 1980S AND 1990s?
01:12:04	Hall, Keith	IT'S BEEN TRUE FOR DECADES.
01:12:05	Cummings, Elijah	AND WORKERS WHO ARE LESS EDUCATED ARE MORE LIKELY TO LOSE THEIR JOBS CURRENTLY AND, THEREFORE, LESS ABLE TO BE ABLE TO SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO COLLEGE. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN ABOUT INCOME DISPARITIES FOR THE NEXT GENERATIONS AND OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL?
01:12:23	Hall, Keith	UNEVEN ACCESS TO EDUCATION MEANS YOU HAVE UNEVEN OUTCOMES IN THE LABOR MARKET. I THINK THAT'S A SAFE THING TO SAY AND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE TRUE.
01:12:32	Cummings, Elijah	VERY WELL. DO YOU HAVE ANYTHING ELSE, MR. BRADY
01:12:37	Brady, Kevin	NO.
01:12:39	Cummings, Elijah	MISS KLOBUCHAR?
01:12:41	Klobuchar, Amy	NO, I DON'T.
01:12:45	Cummings, Elijah	I THINK MISS KLOBUCHAR PRETTY MUCH SUMMARIZED IT. IT'S GOOD TO HEAR SOME NEWS NOT GOING IN THE NEGATIVE DIRECTION. YOU'VE GIVEN US IS FEW THINGS TO FEEL A BIT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT AND HOPEFULLY WHEN WE SEE YOU NEXT MONTH, WE'LL HAVE EVEN BETTER NEWS. BUT THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
01:13:06	Hall, Keith	THANK YOU. [CAPTIONING PERFORMED BY NATIONAL CAPTIONING INSTITUTE] [CAPTIONS COPYRIGHT NATIONAL CABLE SATELLITE CORP. 2009]