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VETERAN POLLSTERS MARK PAN, ED GOAZ, STAN GREENBERG AND BILL SCHNEIDER DISCUSS PRESIDENTIAL POLLS AND THE EFFECT OF PUBLIC OPINION ON PRESIDENTS...
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| 00:00:30 |
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EVENING. I'M VERY HAPPY TO WELCOME YOU ALL TO THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY AND TO THIS EVENT. I AM CHRISTOPHER ARDETON, A PROFESSIONAL OF POLITICAL...
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| 00:04:02 |
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GOING TO BE ON PRESIDENTIAL POLLING. HE'S BEEN MUCH STUDYING THIS TOPIC AND WE ARE HAPPY TO HAVE HIM AS THE MODERATOR. KEN? >> THANK YOU
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| 00:04:13 |
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VERY MUCH. THANK YOU ALL FOR COMING. THANK YOU TO THE UNIVERSITY FOR HOSTING THIS. I HAVE COVERED THE WHITE HOUSE SINCE 1986. I HAVE OFTEN FELT THERE...
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| 00:08:41 |
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TWO KINDS OF POLLING FOR A PRESIDENT. ONE IS MESSAGING. MAINLY WHETHER THE BEST WAY TO FRAME A MESSAGE, HOW IT WILL BE RECEIVED. WE SEE COMPLICATED...
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| 00:11:16 |
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IT'S VERY IMPORTANT WHEN THE PRESIDENT IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF WASHINGTON TO UNDERSTAND THAT FOR THE PRESIDENT TO GET SOMETHING DONE HE ALWAYS HAS...
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| 00:13:55 |
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THANK YOU. THIS IS VERY HELPFUL. I CAN BUILD ON AND STEAL COMMENTS FROM PREVIOUS PARTICIPANTS AND SHARE SOME OF THE HISTORY WITH THEM. AND SHARE A...
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| 00:14:14 |
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MINISTER. I THINK FOR ME, I'M GOING TO START WITH ONE BUT IT BUILDS TO ANOTHER. OTHERS WENT THROUGH THE SAME EXPERIENCE. YOU BUILD A RELATIONSHIP WITH...
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| 00:18:14 |
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JUST BARELY SCRATCH THE SURFACE AND BE HERE FOR HOURS. AGAIN, TRYING TO BUILD ON EVERYTHING THAT WAS SAID. THERE IS NOTHING THAT WAS SAID THAT I WOULD...
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| 00:21:51 |
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THINK WE'RE GOING TO SHOW NOW. IS THAT RIGHT, JUSTIN? LOU HARRIS IS AN ICONIC FIGURE IN AMERICAN POLLING. HE WAS A POLLSTER DURING THE KENNEDY PERIOD...
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| 00:22:32 |
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I DIDN'T GET ALONG THAT WELL. HE SAID I DON'T BELIEVE IN POLLS. I SAID, REALLY? WHY? HE SAID, WELL, IF THEY SHOW YOU YOU'RE BEHIND, IT DOES NOTHING...
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| 00:22:56 |
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NOW, I DON'T KNOW IF YOU COULD HEAR IT VERY CLEARLY, BUT CHRIS DID THE INTERVIEW WITH HIM IN KEY WEST WHERE LOU HARRIS LIVES NOW AND WHAT HE WAS SAYING...
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| 00:23:55 |
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ISSUE. ULTIMATELY WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE PRESIDENT, WHEN THE PRESIDENT MAKES THAT DECISION, THE DECISION IS MADE. AGAIN, YOU'RE ONLY ONE OF MANY ADVISERS....
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| 00:24:03 |
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YOU ONLY HAVE ONE PIECE OF THE TALENT THAT'S NEEDED FOR PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER, MUCH LIKE WAS MENTIONED EARLIER. YOU KNOW, HAVE ALL OF US PROBABLY...
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| 00:24:54 |
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TRY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE TO USE PRESIDENT CLINTON, MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT THE CANDIDATES WHO ARE THE PRESIDENT WILL SOMETIMES HAVE WHOLE AREAS WHERE...
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| 00:27:02 |
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YOU THE LIMITS. A LITTLE STORY OF THE LIMITS OF POLLING AND THE PRESIDENTS, FIRST A STORY NOT FROM THE UNITED STATES. BECAUSE I DID A LOT OF FOREIGN...
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| 00:30:44 |
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ALL RIGHT. BILL? >> WELL, POLLSTERS DO
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| 00:30:47 |
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PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN THE WORKING OF OUR DEMOCRACY. LET ME EXPLAIN WHY. WE HAVE -- HERE'S ONE DIRTY LITTLE SECRET. WE HAVE A SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT...
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| 00:32:54 |
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MEETING I'VE BEEN INVOLVED IN IN THE LAST YEAR, SPENDING NOT THE DEFICIT HAS BEEN THE DISCUSSION. ALL THE POLLING QUESTIONS ARE ON SPENDING NOT THE DEFICIT....
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| 00:33:59 |
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TO ASK STAN AND MARK ON THAT POINT ABOUT WHEN YOU DELIVER BAD NEWS BECAUSE WE IN THE MEDIA DELIVER BAD NEWS ALL THE TIME. AND THAT'S WHY WE HAVE ROCKY...
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| 00:34:27 |
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OPPORTUNITY. WE EACH HAD OUR PERIODS OF OPPORTUNITY. FOR BUT FOR IT WAS IMMEDIATE. FIRST, WE HAD A DISASTROUS, GAYS IN THE MILITARY. WE HAD, YOU KNOW,...
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| 00:35:22 |
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FOLLOW ALONG WITH STAN ON THAT. IT'S INTERESTING. PRESIDENT CLINTON IS SOMEBODY WHO ALWAYS LOVED CRITICISM. SO I FOUND TO COME OFF THE PODIUM AND HE...
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| 00:35:54 |
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KNOW, HE WOULD TAKE CRITICISM. AGAIN, HE WOULD ASSIMILATE IT. LOOK AT IT. WAS THAT THE CASE? HE WOULD TRY TO DO BETTER. LOOK, LEADERS ARE SUCCESSFUL...
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| 00:36:49 |
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W. BUSH, HE WAS ALWAYS WANTING TO KNOW WHAT'S THE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS. I MEAN, THERE WAS A MUCH MORE OF A DISCUSSION WITH HIM ABOUT THE INTENSITY...
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| 00:37:20 |
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THERE. >> THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG PROBLEMS WITH POLLING. BY THE WAY. POLLSTERS GENERALLY DON'T MEASURE INTENSITY VERY WELL. AN ISSUE MATTERS WHEN IT...
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| 00:38:35 |
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I WOULD TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF ISSUE AND SAY THAT I THINK PUBLIC POLLS MAKE THAT MISTAKE. I DON'T KNOW THAT THE INTERNAL POLITICAL POLLS MAKE THAT SAME...
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| 00:38:51 |
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I LOOK AT THE MEDICARE NUMBERS. >> RIGHT. >> I THINK THE TAXPAYER -- >> -- HAD A MASSIVE
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| 00:39:01 |
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INTENSITY DIFFERENCE ON MEDICARE. >> THE
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| 00:39:03 |
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TAX ISSUE IS AN ISSUE LIKE YOU DESCRIBE BECAUSE TIME AND TIME AGAIN, AND I THINK WHEN YOU POLL AND SAY PEOPLE WANT MORE TAXES ON THE WEALTHY, THEY ALL...
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| 00:40:37 |
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ALL LET ME ADDRESS NOT JUST THE POLLING BUT HISTORICALLY IN TERMS OF THE RACES THAT ARE RECENT AND GIVE THIS SOME PRETTY BIG CASE EXAMPLES. THEY ARE IMPORTANT...
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| 00:42:36 |
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IS AN INTERESTING DISCUSSION BECAUSE I WOULD SAY NOW I WASN'T THERE IN '92 BUT AS AN OUTSIDER IT APPEARED TO ME THAT WHILE HE HAD THE MILLIONAIRES TAX...
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| 00:44:03 |
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MOVE ON TO ANOTHER THEME HERE WHICH WE'VE TOUCHED ON THAT LITTLE BIT WHICH IS, PRESIDENT OBAMA TALKS ABOUT BEING IN THE BUBBLE IN WASHINGTON. WE'VE...
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| 00:44:57 |
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HELP? YES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS ISSUES CHANGE. THE EMPHASIS ON WHAT THE PROBLEM IS WITHIN THE SPECIFIC ISSUE CHANGES. WE GO THROUGH THOSE PHASES THAT...
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| 00:46:12 |
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HOUSE IS SO UNREAL IN RELATION TO AMERICANS, SO DISCONNECTED FROM THE COUNTRY. AND THERE ARE SO FEW VEHICLES FOR HAVING ANY REAL CONNECTION TO WHAT PEOPLE...
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| 00:47:10 |
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HOW THAT WORKS THEN WITH THE POSTCARDS. >> I WOULD HAND THEM
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| 00:47:13 |
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LITERALLY A POSTCARD FOR PEOPLE TO FILL OUT AT THE END OF THE FOCUS GROUP. THEY WOULD WRITE A POIGNANT NOTE TO THE PRESIDENT. >> NOTE TO THE PRESIDENT....
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| 00:47:30 |
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UP. AT THE OUTSET I'D HAVE ABOUT 15 MINUTES A WEEK WITH THE PRESIDENT. AT SOME POINT IN THAT DISCUSSION WHERE I WOULD HAND HIM THE POSTCARDS TO READ,...
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| 00:48:18 |
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IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS THIS TECHNIQUE HE USES THAT HE COMES BACK TO AND TALKS ABOUT AGAIN AND AGAIN. HE GETS TEN LETTERS FROM PEOPLE...
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| 00:49:46 |
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BIGGEST MISTAKE I THINK I'VE SEEN BOTH SIDES NOW IN THE LAST TWO PRESIDENTS TO COME IN IS THAT THEY RUN A BETTER CAMPAIGN THAN THE OTHER SIDE, THEY...
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| 00:51:07 |
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THING IS THAT IN WASHINGTON, VIRTUALLY EVERYONE THE PRESIDENT COMES IN CONTACT WITH IS EITHER A DEMOCRAT OR A REPUBLICAN. SO IN THE COUNTRY, THOUGH, THOSE...
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| 00:53:25 |
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RESIST ASKING YOU DURING THAT MONICA LEWINSKY YEAR, HOW DID HE STAY FOCUSED ON GOVERNING WITH ALL THE BAD NEWS HE WAS GETTING THERE? BILL WANTS TO ANSWER....
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| 00:53:37 |
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HIM. IF THERE WERE NO POLLS CLINTON COULD NOT HAVE SURVIVED. THAT IS MY CONCLUSION. I WAS REPORTING THE POLLS ALL YEAR LONG. WHEN THE MONICA LEWINSKY...
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| 00:55:15 |
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ABSOLUTELY. I MEAN, WHEN BILL SAYS THE POLLS, IT'S REALLY THE POPULAR VIEW OF THAT AS PRESIDENT HE KEPT HIS COMMITMENT TO THEM, GOT THE ECONOMY GOING,...
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| 00:56:33 |
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TAKE SOME QUESTIONS BUT I HAVE ONE OTHER THEME I WANT TO GO OVER AND THAT'S, SINCE WE HAVE THESE EXPERTS ON PUBLIC OPINION HERE, SAILING RIGHT INTO THE...
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| 00:57:01 |
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WELL, I WOULD POINT OUT WITHOUT NECESSARILY DOING A DIRECT PARALLEL, I CHECKED IN MAY 1991, THE FIRST PRESIDENT BUSH WAS AT 74% IN THE POLLS. HE WAS...
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| 00:58:39 |
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NO QUESTION THAT THE PRESIDENT'S GENERAL RATINGS HAVE, I THINK, BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY HELPED BY THE WAY HE HANDLED HIMSELF RELATIVE TO THE RAID. I THINK...
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| 01:00:13 |
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I THINK THE SHORT TERM ADVANTAGES ARE GOING TO BE SMALL. I HOPE THAT HE'LL BUILD ON IT AND USE IT IN THE BUDGET PROCESS AND I THINK THE NUMBERS WILL COME...
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| 01:01:15 |
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WE HAVE THE REPUBLICAN WITH THE LAST WORD ON THIS. >> SEVERAL DIFFERENT
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| 01:01:18 |
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FACTORS. IT'S VERY INTERESTING IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD OF HIS PRESIDENCY, GEORGE W. BUSH YOU HAD THE CAPTURE OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. FEW MONTHS EARLIER IN...
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| 01:03:21 |
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TURN IT OVER TO YOU. ANY QUESTIONS OUT HERE? I THINK THERE'S A MICROPHONE UP HERE IF YOU WANT TO GO UP TO THAT MIKE SO WE CAN HEAR YOUR QUESTION. >> I...
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| 01:03:34 |
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JUST SLIGHTLY. I'M ARTHUR KIRSH. I'M A PROFESSOR HERE AT G.W. MY FIRST JOB IN 1957 WAS WITH GEORGE CALEB. SO I'VE BEEN DOING SURVEYS AND POLLS MY...
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| 01:04:43 |
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TO START WITH THAT? >>
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| 01:04:46 |
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WELL, I MEAN, ACTUALLY, I THINK IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT. THERE ARE TWO THINGS. ONE, YOU'RE RIGHT FROM THE PHENOMENON THAT IT'S...
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| 01:08:21 |
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THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO NORMALLY DON'T TALK ABOUT POLITICS OR PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND THEY'RE SORT OF FLATTERED WHEN SOMEONE CALLS THEM OR GETS IN TOUCH WITH...
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| 01:09:24 |
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ADD ON TO THAT FOR A SECOND. ONE OF THE THINGS -- ONE OF THE QUESTIONS WE USED TO ASK A LOT IS HOW MUCH DO YOU KNOW ABOUT AN ISSUE. WE HAVE TOTALLY THROWN...
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| 01:09:58 |
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IS THE ANY WAY TO RUN A DEMOCRACY. BOUNCING OFF WHAT ED GOEAS HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE INTENSITY FACTOR AND THE TIDES OF INTENSITY. IN 2006, 2008, 2010,...
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| 01:10:25 |
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IT'S ALWAYS REFERENDUM ON THE STATUS QUO. EVERY ELECTION IS THAT. YOU EITHER VOTE FOR CHANGE OR CONTINUITY. THE LAST THREE ELECTIONS THEY WERE AS IT...
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| 01:11:36 |
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THE ECONOMY WAS BEGINNING TO PLAY ITSELF THEN, PROBABLY DELAYED BY 9/11, THE ECONOMY PLAYED ITSELF OUT. 2008 WAS A REVOLT. 2010 WAS A -- I'VE SEEN NOTHING...
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| 01:12:31 |
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THAT'S WITH THE ASSUMPTION IT'S THE SAME GROUP OF PEOPLE REVOLTING EVERY CYCLE. IT'S NOT. ONE TIME IT'S ONE SIDE, NEXT TIME IT'S THE OTHER SIDE. I ACTUALLY...
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| 01:13:51 |
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SPOTLIGHT. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST QUESTION. >> I WANT TO GET IN
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| 01:13:53 |
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BECAUSE IT'S AN INTERESTING QUESTION. ONE QUICK OBSERVATION I'D MAKE IS I THINK THIS IS THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE PERIOD OF UNHAPPY ELECTORATE AT LEAST...
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| 01:15:10 |
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QUESTION. THIS HAS TO BE OUR LAST
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| 01:15:11 |
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ONE. >> HI, GOOD EVENING. I'M A GRADUATE STUDENT AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY AND I'M GRADUATING WITH MASTER'S DEGREE IN PUBLIC COMMUNICATION THIS SATURDAY....
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| 01:15:52 |
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WANT TO START WITH THAT? >> I WOULD SAY I DID A
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| 01:15:56 |
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POLL ABOUT A YEAR AND A HALF AGO AND ASKED ABOUT INTERNET ACCESS IN THE WEST BANK AND GAZA, TWO THIRDS. AND INTERNET ACCESS AND OF THOSE 70% HAD A...
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| 01:17:05 |
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THAT IS THAT IT'S ALWAYS FUN TO STAND UP AND TALK ABOUT ALL THE NEAT THINGS WE'RE DOING TO KIND OF MOVE TO THE NEW TECHNIQUES THAT ARE OUT THERE. THE...
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| 01:19:41 |
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JUST SAY QUICKLY THAT SOCIAL MEDIA HAS ENORMOUS POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT TRADITIONAL POLITICS. THAT I THINK THAT THE INTERNET, YOU KNOW, OBVIOUSLY REVOLUTIONIZED...
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| 01:20:44 |
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MEDIA. >> JUST ONE POINT ON THE FUND-RAISING. I MEAN, IT STARTED IN 2004 BECAUSE OF THE ENERGY OF THE ANTI-WAR MOVEMENT, HOWARD DEAN. THE FUND-RAISING....
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| 01:21:14 |
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GREAT. WELL, I THINK WE HAVE REACHED THE END OF OUR TIME HERE. I WANT TO THANK YOU ALL FOR COMING AND I WANT TO THANK OUR PANEL. GOEAS, BEN GREENBERG...
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.